Broker: Maybank Research Pte Ltd
Date of Report: August 8, 2025

Genting Singapore: Navigating Growing Pains and Poised for a New Start in 2025

Overview: Genting Singapore’s Transitional Year and Forward Prospects

Genting Singapore (GENS SP), the owner and operator of Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) and a key player in Singapore’s gaming and integrated resort sector, is experiencing a year of growing pains. Despite recent earnings missing expectations due to RWS 2.0 construction disruptions, optimism remains high with a new management team at the helm and major project milestones ahead. Maybank Research maintains a BUY rating with a slightly lowered DCF-based target price of SGD 1.00, representing a 37% upside from current levels.

Financial Highlights: Earnings Miss but Dividends Hold Steady

• 2Q25 core net profit: SGD 98.4 million, down 11% year-on-year.
• 1H25 core net profit: SGD 248.7 million, down 31% year-on-year, reaching just 42% of full-year estimates.
• 1H25 EBITDA: SGD 423.7 million, down 26% year-on-year, at 44% of annual expectations.
• 1H25 revenue: SGD 1.2 billion, a 10% decline year-on-year, but in line with projections.
• Dividend per share (DPS): 2.0 cents, unchanged year-on-year and at 50% of full-year estimate.

The main drag on performance was weaker-than-expected mass market gross gaming revenue (GGR) and soft non-gaming revenue, both attributed to temporary disruptions from ongoing RWS 2.0 construction. Notably, VIP volume grew 5% quarter-on-quarter, bucking the seasonal trend.

Temporary Weakness in Mass Market and Non-Gaming Segments

• 2Q25 mass market GGR: Down 12% quarter-on-quarter to approximately SGD 365 million—a new low with mass market share slipping to 25% (1Q25: 28%).
• 2Q25 non-gaming revenue: SGD 186 million, below the FY24A quarterly average of SGD 206 million.
• VIP volume: Rose 16% year-on-year to SGD 9.1 billion in 2Q25.

Disruptions, including the S.E.A. Aquarium closure in May and June, deterred both mass gamblers and non-gaming visitors. Recovery is expected towards the end of FY25 with the anticipated openings of the Singapore Oceanarium and WEAVE mall in July, and the Laurus Hotel in October, which is set to attract more VIP and premium mass gamblers.

Revised Financial Forecasts: 2025 Cut, Long-Term Outlook Stable

Maybank has trimmed its FY25 earnings per share (EPS) forecast by 16% to reflect near-term headwinds but maintains FY26 and FY27 estimates, confident in operational normalization post-RWS 2.0 completion.

Quarterly and Half-Yearly Performance: In-Depth Analysis

• 2Q25 revenue: SGD 588.3 million, up 3% YoY, but down 6% QoQ.
• Singapore IR gaming revenue: SGD 401.9 million, up 5.3% YoY, down 8.1% QoQ.
• Adjusted EBITDA: SGD 187.9 million, down 6.6% YoY and 20.3% QoQ.
• Core net profit (2Q25): SGD 98.4 million vs. SGD 110.2 million a year ago and SGD 150.3 million last quarter.

Half-yearly:

• 1H25 EBITDA: SGD 423.7 million, down 25.8% YoY.
• 1H25 mass market GGR: c.SGD 775 million, down 4% YoY.
• EBITDA margin (1H25): 34.9% (down from 42.1% a year ago).

Management Transformation and Strategic Focus

Genting Singapore’s 2Q25 briefing was led by newly appointed President and COO Ms. Lee Shi Ruh, previously the company’s CFO. She has implemented a new organization chart and brought in a fresh management team, signaling a clear focus on regaining lost market share. RWS 2.0 is now half complete, and key hires are being made to strengthen operations further.

Major Assumptions and DCF Valuation

• FY25E mass market GGR: SGD 1,500 million (down from previous SGD 1,550 million).
• FY25E non-gaming revenue: SGD 750 million (down from previous SGD 840.7 million).
• DCF-based equity value: SGD 12.05 billion or SGD 1.00 per share, based on a WACC of 10.4% and net cash of SGD 3.03 billion by end FY25E.

Investment Proposition and Key Value Drivers

• Genting Singapore is the only listed pure-play on a Singapore integrated resort.
• Balance sheet remains strong, with net cash of SGD 3.3 billion (SGD 0.27/share) as of end-1H25.
• Potential for special dividends if no major expansion opportunities arise.
• Will consider expanding into new markets if projected IRR exceeds 15% and group ROEs return to above 10%.

Key Price Drivers and Historical Share Price Movements

• Covid-19 impacts, vaccine rollouts, and China’s reopening have all affected stock performance.
• China’s economic slowdown has recently raised concerns over RWS’s recovery potential.
• Share price remains volatile, with notable reactions to market news and operational updates.

Financial Metrics and Swing Factors

Key Financial Metrics:

• FY25E EBITDA forecast to fall 11% due to RWS 2.0 disruptions, followed by a 14% rebound in FY26E.
• Premium mass gamblers expected to return with the reopening of the former Hard Rock Hotel (as Laurus Hotel).

Potential Upside Factors:

• Higher-than-expected VIP win rate.
• Shift in VIP:mass market mix toward mass market, boosting margins.
• Successful completion and expansion of RWS 2.0, increasing capacity.

Potential Downside Risks:

• Lower-than-expected VIP win rate.
• Bad debt risks, especially among Chinese VIPs, as gambling debts are not enforceable in China.
• High capex requirements for regional expansion with uncertain returns.

Key Financial Ratios and Balance Sheet Strength

• P/E (FY25E): 18.2x
• P/BV (FY25E): 1.1x
• Net dividend yield (FY25E): 5.3%
• ROAE (FY25E): 6.0%
• Capex/revenue (FY25E): 37.6%
• Current ratio (FY25E): 5.1x
• Net gearing: Remains at net cash throughout forecast period

Conclusion: BUY Recommendation Reaffirmed

Despite a transitory earnings dip in FY25 due to RWS 2.0 construction, Genting Singapore stands poised for recovery and market share gains under a revitalized management team. Major project milestones in the second half of 2025 are set to uplift both gaming and non-gaming revenues. Maybank Research maintains a BUY call with a revised DCF-based target price of SGD 1.00, signaling substantial upside for investors seeking exposure to Singapore’s premier integrated resort operator.

About Genting Singapore

• Owns and operates Resorts World Sentosa, one of only two integrated resorts in Singapore.
• Major shareholders: Genting Bhd (52.5%), Nikko Asset Management Asia Ltd (0.3%), Kok Thay Lim (0.1%).
• Market capitalisation: SGD 9.1 billion (USD 7.1 billion) with 12,094 million issued shares.

Contact and Disclosures

For further information or detailed analyst contact lists, refer to the research offices or reach out to Maybank Research Pte Ltd.
This comprehensive review provides investors and market watchers with a clear, detailed, and actionable insight into the current state and future prospects of Genting Singapore, as assessed by Maybank Research Pte Ltd as of August 8, 2025.