Broker: UOB Kay Hian
Date of Report: Friday, 08 August 2025
China’s July Trade Data Surpasses Expectations: Detailed Analysis of Export, Import Trends, and Market Impacts
Strong July Trade Performance Defies Market Expectations
China’s trade data for July 2025 delivered a robust surprise, with both exports and imports outpacing consensus forecasts and pointing to sustained near-term trade strength. The data, analyzed by UOB Kay Hian, highlights the evolving dynamics across key markets and product categories, set against the backdrop of ongoing global trade tensions and a new Sino-US tariff truce.
Headline Trade Figures: Exports and Imports Rebound Sharply
- Exports: Grew by 7.2% year-on-year in July, accelerating from 5.8% in June. Consensus had expected a slowdown to 5.6%.
- Imports: Rose by 4.1% year-on-year, rebounding from 1.1% in June and beating expectations for a 1.0% decline.
- Trade Surplus: Posted at US\$98.2 billion, down from June’s US\$114.8 billion.
Exports: Regional Shifts and Sectoral Performance
Exports to different global regions showed significant divergence, shaped by both supportive and challenging factors:
- EU: Exports surged 9.2% year-on-year, up from 7.6% in June, reflecting continued strength.
- ASEAN: Growth remained elevated at 16.6%, only slightly off June’s 16.8%.
- Hong Kong: Rose 10.7% year-on-year, though this was a slowdown from June’s 16.7%.
- Japan: Growth moderated to 2.4%, compared to 6.6% a month earlier.
- US: Exports plunged by 21.7%, deepening the decline from June’s 16.1% contraction, underscoring the impact of ongoing tariffs.
Imports: Commodity Weakness Offset by Integrated Circuits and Agriculture
Import performance showed mixed trends across commodities and product categories:
- Integrated Circuits: Imports accelerated sharply to 13.0% year-on-year, up from 11.5% in June, driven by continued technology demand.
- Agricultural Products: Import growth picked up to 5.1% from 1.9% in the prior month, reflecting strong food demand.
- Key Commodities:
- Crude Oil: Imports dropped 18.7% year-on-year, worsening from June’s 6.1% decline.
- Iron Ore: Imports contracted 8.1%, slightly better than June’s 9.4% drop.
- Copper Ore: Growth slowed sharply to 5.1%, down from 16.6% in June.
- Coal: Imports plunged by 45.9%, a modest improvement on June’s 47.1% fall.
Product Category Trends: Export and Import Highlights
- Motor Vehicles: Export growth moderated to 19.2% year-on-year, down from 24.5% in June, but remains a bright spot.
- Hi-Tech Products: Exports grew 4.2%, decelerating by 2.7 percentage points from June.
- Mechanical & Electrical Products: Maintained strong export growth at 8.0%, only a marginal slowdown from June’s 8.2%.
Key Financial Table: July 2025 Trade Breakdown
|
Jul-25 |
Jun-25 |
Jul-25 yoy % |
Jun-25 yoy % |
| Exports (US\$b) |
321.8 |
325.2 |
7.2 |
5.8 |
| Imports (US\$b) |
223.5 |
210.5 |
4.1 |
1.1 |
| Trade Surplus (US\$b) |
98.2 |
114.8 |
|
|
| Exports to Key Markets (US\$b, yoy %) |
| US |
35.8 |
38.2 |
-21.7 |
-16.1 |
| EU |
50.0 |
49.2 |
9.2 |
7.6 |
| Japan |
12.5 |
13.4 |
2.4 |
6.6 |
| Hong Kong |
27.0 |
28.1 |
10.7 |
16.7 |
| ASEAN |
54.6 |
58.2 |
16.6 |
16.8 |
| Imports of Key Commodities (US\$b, yoy %) |
| Iron Ore |
9.6 |
9.8 |
-8.1 |
-9.4 |
| Crude Oil |
23.9 |
24.2 |
-18.7 |
-6.1 |
| Copper Ore |
6.9 |
6.4 |
5.1 |
16.6 |
| Coal |
2.4 |
2.4 |
-45.9 |
-47.1 |
| Key Product Categories (US\$b, yoy %) |
| Agricultural Products Imports |
18.7 |
18.5 |
5.1 |
1.9 |
| Integrated Circuits Imports |
37.3 |
34.6 |
13.0 |
11.5 |
| Motor Vehicle Exports |
84.8 |
77.3 |
19.2 |
24.5 |
| Hi-tech Products Exports |
78.1 |
78.1 |
4.2 |
6.9 |
| Mechanical & Electrical Products Exports |
193.7 |
194.0 |
8.0 |
8.2 |
Trade Policy Context: 90-Day Sino-US Tariff Truce
A new 90-day trade truce between China and the US may continue to support near-term trade activity. This temporary reprieve is expected to bring forward demand in certain sectors, though the data remains a mixed bag as global economic uncertainties and subdued confidence weigh on others.
Analysis: Mixed Bag Reflects Global Uncertainty
- Despite overall robust trade growth, the dichotomy between strong technology and agricultural imports and weak commodity shipments highlights ongoing economic realignment.
- The sharp fall in exports to the US demonstrates the continued drag from tariffs, even as exports to the EU and ASEAN remain resilient.
- Motor vehicle and hi-tech product exports, while still growing, have shown signs of moderation, possibly reflecting both supply-side constraints and shifting global demand patterns.
Outlook: Near-Term Upside, Long-Term Questions
With the trade truce in effect and July’s data exceeding expectations, China’s trade sector appears poised for continued resilience in the near term. However, analysts remain watchful for signs of underlying weakness, especially if global confidence falters or if further trade policy uncertainty emerges.
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Disclosures & Legal Information
This analysis is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. Please refer to the broker for full disclaimers and disclosures relevant to your region.
Conclusion
China’s July 2025 trade report underscores the complexity and resilience of the world’s second-largest economy in a shifting global landscape. Investors and market watchers would do well to keep a close eye on the evolving trade dynamics, sectoral shifts, and policy changes that will shape the months ahead.
