Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: August 7, 2025

Pop Mart International Group Leads Bullish Continuation: Key Insights for Investors into Hong Kong Retail and Venture Corporation

Market Overview: Bullish Trends Prevail Amid Recession Concerns

Global stock markets remain robust despite a 30% probability of a US recession. According to leading macro traders, market momentum is so strong that betting against it seems almost irrational. Investors are focusing on strong liquidity, structural growth themes like artificial intelligence, and fiscal credit expansion. US equities hover near record highs, buoyed by robust corporate earnings and expectations of over 100 basis points in Federal Reserve rate cuts by mid-2026. The market is flush with liquidity due to heavy front-end Treasury issuance, and fast-money investors—particularly CTAs—are driving equity flows, reinforcing a trend-following, “let winners run” mentality.

Company Spotlight: Pop Mart International Group Ltd (9992.HK)

Technical Buy Recommendation: Bullish Continuation Pattern

• Last Price: HK\$277.00
• Entry Price(s): 277.00, 259.00, 240.00
• Support 1: 235.00
• Support 2: 210.60
• Stop Loss: 180.00
• Resistance 1: 285.80
• Resistance 2: 316.10
• Target Price 1: 310.00
• Target Price 2: 353.60
• Target Price 3: 404.00
• Target Price 4: 438.00

Company Description

Pop Mart International Group Limited is a global leader in trendy toys, specializing in design, production, marketing, and wholesale distribution. The company targets a worldwide market with its innovative and highly sought-after toy products.

Technical Analysis Snapshot

Pop Mart has rebounded strongly from a recent buy limit at HK$235.20, achieving over 14% gains. The technical outlook is highly positive, with several bullish indicators suggesting further upside:

• The stock remains in a steady uptrend and has recently broken out from a pennant formation, indicating a strong bullish continuation.
• Ichimoku analysis signals continued strength, with closes above both leading spans A and B.
• The MACD and signal line are elevated above the zero line, reinforcing bullish momentum.
• The Stochastic Oscillator is poised for a reverse crossover, which, if confirmed, could reverse previous overbought signals and support further price advances.
• The 23-period Rate of Change (ROC) remains positive.
• The Directional Movement Index shows sustained bullish strength.
• Trading volume is expanding healthily, supporting the uptrend.

For investors seeking alternative exposure or reduced FX risk, Pop Mart’s Singapore SDR (SGX: HPPD) is available at S$2.28.
Notably, prior Trendspotter recommendations on Pop Mart have delivered an estimated cumulative growth of 1,123% since March 2024.

Venture Corporation (Singapore) – Interim DPS Surprise and Upgraded Outlook

Financial Highlights

• 1H25 Earnings: S\$113 million (-8.6% year-on-year), above/in line with both internal and Bloomberg consensus full-year expectations.
• 1H25 Revenue: S\$1.26 billion, representing an 8.8% year-on-year decline.
• Interim Dividend Per Share (DPS): S\$0.25 (same as 1H24), plus a special DPS of S\$0.05.
• Net Cash (as of June 2025): S\$1.3 billion.

Business Conditions and Outlook

• Despite ongoing uncertainties in the tariff environment and continued weakness among major customers, Venture Corporation is actively exploring new business opportunities.
• The company is committed to defending its net margin target of 8–10%.
• Upgraded to “Add” with a new target price of S\$13.45 as focus shifts to FY27F. Revenue growth is expected to gradually recover entering FY27F.

Investment Ratings Framework

Stock Ratings

• Add: Total return expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.
• Hold: Total return expected between 0% and +10% over the next 12 months.
• Reduce: Total return expected to fall below 0% over the next 12 months.

The total expected return is comprised of the percentage difference between the target price and the current price, plus the forward net dividend yield. Price targets are set on a 12-month horizon.

Sector and Country Ratings

• Overweight: Above-market weight recommendation relative to benchmark.
• Neutral: Market weight recommendation.
• Underweight: Below-market weight recommendation.

Current Coverage Distribution (as of June 30, 2025)

Coverage: 561 companies as of June 30, 2025

Global Distribution and Compliance Notice

CGS International’s research is distributed across major financial markets, with compliance to relevant local regulations. The report is prepared for institutional and professional investors and may not be available to all retail investors or in all jurisdictions. Investors are urged to consider their own investment objectives, circumstances, and consult with financial advisors before making decisions.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways for Investors

• Pop Mart International Group demonstrates a strong technical uptrend, with multiple bullish indicators and a history of substantial returns for trend-following investors.
• Venture Corporation, despite short-term revenue and earnings declines, maintains financial resilience and a steady dividend, with the outlook upgraded on expectations of gradual recovery and innovation in the face of global uncertainties.
• The broader market context remains supportive, driven by high liquidity, strong earnings, and robust technical momentum, even as macroeconomic risks persist.

Investors should monitor these trends and company-specific developments closely, leveraging technical and fundamental insights to optimize portfolio positioning in the evolving market landscape.