Broker: UOB Kay Hian Private Wealth Management
Date of Report: August 01, 2025

Global Markets React to New US Tariffs, Earnings Surprises, and Shifting Trade Dynamics

Market Overview: Volatility Amid Tariffs and Earnings Surprises

The S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2% in early Friday trading as US President Trump imposed a fresh round of tariffs, raising Canada’s rate to 35% and setting levies of 20% on Taiwan, and 19% on Cambodia and Thailand. The S&P 500 cash market erased earlier gains to close lower, despite upbeat earnings from major tech players, a trade deal with South Korea, and a tariff extension with Mexico. The Nasdaq also ended in the red, highlighting ongoing market uncertainty.

Key Index and Market Performance

Must-Watch Events & Economic Calendar

• Aug 1: New US tariffs take effect, HK Stablecoin Ordinance enacted, China July Caixin/S&P Manufacturing PMI, Macau July Casino Revenue, US July Labour Data, S&P Manufacturing PMI (Final). Earnings: Chevron, ExxonMobil, OCBC.
• Aug 2: Berkshire Hathaway earnings release.
• Aug 3: OPEC+ Monthly Meeting.

IPO Calendar: Hong Kong

Major US Companies: Earnings and Strategic Updates

Amazon (AMZN)

• Shares dropped 6.6% in extended trading post-earnings.
• Guided Q3 sales above consensus at \$174–179.5 billion.
• Reported Q2 AWS margin compression and slower growth compared to Azure and Google Cloud.
• Remains a core recommendation.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B)

• Q2 results expected August 2.
• Revenue forecast: \$95.1 billion (+1.6% YoY).
• Adjusted EPS to dip 7.4% to \$5.01.
• Remains a core recommendation.

Apple (AAPL)

• Shares rose 2.2% after-market on Thursday.
• Fiscal Q3 revenue: \$94.04 billion (+9.6% YoY).
• EPS: \$1.57, beating estimates, driven by 13.5% iPhone growth ahead of new US tariffs.

Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META)

• Both stocks rose sharply after strong earnings: MSFT +3.95%, META +11.25%.
• Both remain core recommendations.

Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), and Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC)

• All shares fell amid Trump’s demand that major pharma CEOs cut US drug prices to match the lowest paid by OECD countries by September 29, threatening further action for non-compliance.
• LLY: -2.63%; PFE: -2.18%; NOVOB DC: -3.23%.

Figma (FIG)

• IPO soared +250% in NYSE debut, showcasing strong investor appetite for tech IPOs.

Financial Sector Highlights

Robinhood (HOOD) and AppLovin (APP)

• Potential S&P 500 inclusion if Paramount is dropped after the Skydance deal.
• AppLovin: +7.54%, HOOD: -2.87%.
• AppLovin is a Trading Buy recommendation.

Coinbase (COIN)

• Shares plunged 9.4% after Q2 results missed estimates (Adj. EPS: \$0.12 vs. \$0.28 est.; Revenue: \$1.26B vs. \$1.28B est.).
• Weaker trading activity and low volatility offset by growth in stablecoin revenue and regulatory support from the GENIUS Act.

Mastercard (MA)

• Signals robust consumer spending as profit tops estimates.
• Gross dollar volume up 9% YoY in Q2, cross-border volume up 15%.
• Adjusted EPS: \$4.15; Revenue: \$8.1B.

Boeing (BA)

• New contract offer to St. Louis defense workers after previous rejection.
• Prior offer included a 20% wage hike over four years; revised offer adds minor compensation changes and drops \$5,000 bonus if not accepted.

Automotive, Energy, and Industrial Highlights

Tesla (TSLA)

• Launched ride-hailing in the San Francisco Bay Area with human-driven vehicles as California regulators have not yet approved robotaxi operations.
• CPUC requires Tesla to complete a pilot phase before charging fares.
• Shares fell 3.38%.

ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX)

• Q2 earnings expected: Exxon (Adj. EPS: \$1.56, -27% YoY), Chevron (Adj. EPS: \$1.70, -33% YoY).

Vale (VALE)

• Q2 net profit: \$2.12B, down 24% YoY but beat \$1.44B forecast.
• Revenue: \$8.8B (-11%), Adjusted EBITDA: \$3.39B (-15%).
• Cost reductions of \$200M, secured Bacaba copper project license.

Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC)

• Union Pacific’s \$85B bid for Norfolk Southern faces Senate scrutiny as a potential monopoly risk. STB review could take up to 18 months.

Bridgewater Associates

• Founder Ray Dalio sells remaining stake and steps down from the board after 50 years. Brunei’s sovereign fund acquires a minority stake.

MP Materials (MP)

• Pentagon-backed \$400M deal to ramp up US rare earth magnet output as US explores price floors and recycling to counter China supply risks.

Healthcare Spotlight

Eli Lilly (LLY)

• Mounjaro outperformed Trulicity in reducing major heart events by 8% and all-cause mortality by 16%.
• Plans to seek expanded FDA approval in 2026; Mounjaro holds over 50% of the US diabetes market with \$11.5B in 2024 sales.

AbbVie (ABBV)

• Raised 2025 profit forecast after Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales offset tariff risks. Adjusted EPS: \$2.97, above \$2.88 estimate.

Greater China: Trade, Tech, and Property Updates

Trade and Tech Tensions

• US-China trade deal remains unfinished ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline, with technical details outstanding.
• China’s Cyberspace Administration summoned Nvidia over alleged security risks in H20 chips; Nvidia denies “backdoors,” faces pressure from rising domestic competition.

Manufacturing and Property

• China’s July Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, non-manufacturing to 50.1, weighed by soft construction and input cost pressures.
• Home sales continued to decline, with falling prices failing to stimulate demand and no signs of immediate policy support.

Auto and Commodities

• Weekly China PV sales: Insurance registrations up 13% WoW but down 1.6% YoY. Four of eight OEMs report YoY declines amid a pricing standoff post-discounts. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, Tuopu.
• China polysilicon firms plan RMB50B (\$7B) fund to shut a third of industry capacity from 3.25M to 2M tons amid oversupply and a 70% price surge.

Corporate Moves

• Shein Q1 revenue neared \$10B with \$400M+ net income, 5% margin, as US shoppers stocked up ahead of tariffs. Trump’s Aug 29 repeal of de minimis threatens Shein’s low-cost model.
• CK Hutchison’s Panama ports face legal challenge amid US-China tensions. Potential shift to state partnerships if contract is voided.
• Kuaishou shares jump as Morgan Stanley raises target to HK\$67 (from HK\$60); 2Q revenue expected to rise 12% YoY to RMB35B, net profit up 10% to RMB5.1B.
• China Galaxy and CICC plan over \$1B in Southeast Asia investment funds, supporting the “plus N” overseas expansion strategy.

Asia ex-China: Key Developments

Malaysia and Singapore

• President Trump tentatively plans to attend ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur on October 26, with possible meetings with Xi and Putin.
• OCBC 2Q net profit: S\$1.82B (-7% YoY), NIM at 1.92%, ROE at 12.3%. Expects net interest income to decline mid-single digits in 2025, non-interest income up 5% YoY, wealth assets at a record S\$310B.

Singapore Corporate Earnings

• Keppel: 1H25 net profit S\$431M (+25% YoY); S\$0.15 interim dividend, S\$500M share buyback, S\$915M in capital recycling proceeds YTD. Maintain BUY (Target: S\$9.51).
• Seatrium: 1H25 revenue S\$5.4B (+34%), gross margin 7.4%, orderbook S\$18.6B (34% renewables). Maintain BUY (Target: S\$2.96).
• Sheng Siong: 2Q25 earnings S\$34M (+0.5% YoY), record 31.4% gross margin, new store growth offsetting higher staff costs. Plans for at least eight new stores in 2025. Maintain BUY (Target: S\$2.40).

Singapore REITs Monthly Update

• Singapore remains a REIT haven with disciplined fiscal policy and low 10% reciprocal tariff.
• Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: CICT (Target: S\$2.72), FCT (Target: S\$3.07), LREIT (Target: S\$0.76), DCREIT (Target: US\$0.88), KDCREIT (Target: S\$2.69), CLAR (Target: S\$4.02).

EMEA & Other International Highlights

BMW (BMW GR)

• 2Q operating margin fell to 5.4% due to weaker China sales and US tariffs, but beat forecasts and retained full-year outlook. Plans to expand EV and US production.

Arm Holdings (ARM US)

• Shares dropped 13.44% after weak Q2 profit forecast on rising R&D for AI chips. 1Q results beat estimates but investors wary of costs and uncertainty.

Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

• 1H profit rose 26% YoY to \$4.38B, driven by trading and wealth gains. Announced \$1.3B buyback, avoided China-related losses.

Société Générale (GLE FP)

• 2Q net income up 31% YoY to €1.45B (\$1.66B), beating forecasts. Shares hit 16-year high. Raised 2025 targets, announced €1B buyback and interim dividend.

European Wine and Spirits

• US raises import tariff to 15% from August 1 (up from 10%). EU producers warn of major losses, while US industry pushes for return to zero tariffs.

Conclusion

Global markets face heightened volatility driven by new US tariffs, shifting trade relationships, mixed corporate earnings, and evolving regulatory landscapes. Investors are advised to remain vigilant as market sentiment continues to be shaped by macroeconomic developments, geopolitical events, and corporate strategies across major sectors and regions.