CGS International
July 22, 2025

Hong Kong Trendspotter: Key Retail and Stock Insights for Investors in 2025

Market Recap: Tariff Tensions and Earnings Season Shape Global Sentiment

The start of a pivotal week for global markets saw U.S. equities giving up most gains, with investor attention sharply focused on earnings resilience amid ongoing tariff anxieties. Despite the S&P 500 closing above 6,300 for the first time, gains were minimal at just 0.1%. Energy stocks declined alongside oil prices, while chipmakers nearly erased previous advances, pressured by a slip in Nvidia Corp. Market giants Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. are set to kick off the earnings season, where updates on artificial intelligence (AI) spending are highly anticipated.
Key economic indicators included:

• The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell four basis points to 4.95%.
• The dollar weakened against all developed-market currencies.
• The Japanese yen strengthened as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba committed to leadership despite the ruling coalition’s setback in the upper house election.

Investors remain vigilant for further tariff headlines, with the White House signaling the potential for more unilateral tariff actions before August 1. Market participants are weighing whether these developments are already priced in, while consensus is that corporate guidance during earnings season will be more critical than ever for setting Wall Street targets.

Trip.com (HKG: Trip.com): Strong Summer Travel Outlook and Resilient Market Share

Trip.com is expected to benefit from robust travel demand during the summer holiday period (July 1 – August 31, 2025). The outlook for both domestic and outbound travel is positive:

• Domestic travel market revenue is projected to increase by mid-to-high single digits year-on-year (yoy).
• Outbound travel revenue is forecasted to rise by mid-to-high teens yoy.

Despite competitive pressures from JD and Douyin, which have recently increased online travel agency (OTA) subsidies, Trip.com’s strong positioning in the high-end hotel segment is likely to shield its market share.
For the second quarter of 2025, the company is forecasted to achieve:

• Revenue growth of 14.5% yoy.
• A non-GAAP net profit decline of 10.3% yoy, attributed to aggressive overseas expansion.

CGS International maintains an “Add” rating with a DCF-based target price of HK$588.0 (WACC: 10.1%, Terminal Growth: 3%).

AIM Vaccine Co Ltd (HKG: 6660): Technical Buy Signal as Bottoming Out Begins

Summary of Technical Setup and Company Overview
AIM Vaccine Co Ltd, a leading vaccine manufacturer and distributor, is showing strong technical signals indicating the first leg of a significant bottoming process. The company’s portfolio includes recombinant hepatitis B vaccines, freeze-dried human rabies vaccines, inactivated hepatitis A vaccines, and live attenuated parotitis vaccines, along with import and export operations.
Key Technical Indicators:

• Last price: HK\$4.36
• Entry Prices: HK\$4.36, HK\$3.79, HK\$3.20
• Support Levels: 1.09 (Support 1), 0.70 (Support 2)
• Stop Loss: 2.96
• Resistance Levels: 1.38 (Resistance 1), 2.41 (Resistance 2)
• Target Prices: 6.40 (TP1), 7.90 (TP2), 8.60 (TP3), 15.00 (TP4)

Technical Analysis Snapshot:

• The stock has broken out of a major falling wedge, indicating a bullish reversal.
• A small consolidative range has formed, suggesting potential for further upside continuation.
• The Ichimoku indicator provides a strong bullish signal.
• The MACD histogram is positive, with the MACD and signal lines rising steadily toward the zero line.
• The Stochastic Oscillator continues to rise, confirming momentum.
• The 23-period Rate of Change (ROC) is positive and trending upwards.
• The Directional Movement Index signals increasing bullish strength.
• Trading volume is experiencing strong, healthy expansion, further supporting the bullish outlook.

Company Profile: AIM Vaccine Co., Ltd. specializes in the manufacture and distribution of a diverse portfolio of vaccines. The company has a significant presence in both domestic and international markets, with capabilities in import and export.

Key Disclosures and Regulatory Overview

CGS International, the broker covering this report, provides detailed disclosures regarding its operations across major Asian and international markets. The firm maintains compliance with regulatory authorities in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and other jurisdictions.

Stock Ratings Definitions:

• Add: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.
• Hold: The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and 10% over the next 12 months.
• Reduce: The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% over the next 12 months.

Total expected return is calculated as the sum of the percentage difference between the target price and current price, plus the forward net dividend yield.

Sector and Country Ratings:

• Overweight: Positive absolute recommendation relative to the benchmark.
• Neutral: Neutral recommendation relative to the benchmark.
• Underweight: Negative absolute recommendation relative to the benchmark.

Rating Distribution for Q2 2025:

As of June 30, 2025, 561 companies were under coverage.

Conclusion: Key Themes for Investors in 2025

The current investment landscape is marked by heightened volatility due to tariff uncertainties and the critical importance of earnings guidance. Companies like Trip.com stand to benefit from resilient travel demand, while technical opportunities are emerging in healthcare plays such as AIM Vaccine Co Ltd. Investors are advised to monitor sector and country allocations, remain alert to regulatory shifts, and consider both fundamental and technical signals in portfolio decision-making. As always, comprehensive due diligence and tailored advice are recommended to navigate these complex markets.