UOB Kay Hian
16 July 2025
Anta Sports: Navigating Channel Restructuring with Strong Multi-Brand Growth – A Comprehensive 2025 Outlook
Executive Summary
Anta Sports Products Ltd (2020 HK), China’s leading sportswear conglomerate, continues to reinforce its dominance across performance, fashion, and outdoor segments. Despite a challenging second quarter for its flagship brand, Anta, the company remains committed to its ambitious full-year targets, leveraging robust growth from its diverse brand portfolio and ongoing channel optimization. This report offers a deep dive into Anta Sports’ recent performance, financial outlook, brand-specific strategies, and investment thesis.
Broker Recommendation & Target Price
- Recommendation: BUY (Maintained)
- Current Share Price: HK\$89.80
- Target Price: HK\$108.60
- Upside Potential: +20.9%
Company Overview
Anta Sports is a premier player in China’s sportswear landscape, boasting a comprehensive portfolio that spans:
- Performance Sports Brands: Anta, Descente
- Fashion Sports Brands: Fila, Maia Active
- Outdoor Sports Brands: Kolon Sport, Jack Wolfskin
Anta Sports also holds a 43.33% stake in Amer Sports, which owns iconic global names such as Arc’teryx, Salomon, Wilson, Peak Performance, and Atomic.
Shareholder & Market Data
- Market Cap: HK\$252,087.2 million (US\$32,113.1 million)
- Shares Issued: 2,807.2 million
- 3-Month Avg Daily Turnover: US\$97.1 million
- 52-Week High/Low: HK\$107.50 / HK\$65.55
- Major Shareholder: Anta International Limited (52.67%)
2Q25 Operational Highlights: Brand-by-Brand Analysis
Anta Brand: Sales Miss in 2Q25, Focus on Channel Restructuring
- Anta’s 2Q25 sales underperformed management’s expectations, mainly due to:
- Restructuring of the online channel to avoid conflicts among teams and platforms
- Ongoing upgrades to offline franchise stores
- 2Q25 retail sales growth for Anta brand posted low single-digit gains
- Management remains committed to the full-year sales target, banking on high single-digit sales growth in 2H25
- Positive early impact from channel adjustments expected to support recovery
Fila: Consistent Growth and Outperformance
- Fila’s retail sales grew by mid-single-digit in 2Q25
- Fila Classic: High single-digit retail sales growth
- Fila Kids & Fusion: Mid-single-digit growth
- Management is confident in meeting full-year targets for Fila
Other Brands: The Growth Engine
- Retail sales for other brands (excluding Jack Wolfskin) surged by 50-55% in 2Q25, and 60-65% in 1H25
- Brand-specific highlights:
- Descente: Over 40% retail sales growth
- Kolon Sport: Over 70% retail sales growth
- Maia Active: Over 30% retail sales growth
- Jack Wolfskin: Over 30% retail sales growth
- Growth for these brands may moderate in 2H25 compared to the stellar 1H25 momentum
Channel Optimization & Store Initiatives
- Anta’s new store formats delivered strong results:
- 70 Super Anta stores (20 opened in 1H25): High double-digit same-store sales growth
- 100 Champion stores (17 opened in 1H25): High double-digit same-store sales growth
- Lighthouse Plan: Ongoing franchise store optimization to accelerate in 2H25 and continue through 2027
Inventory & Discounting Trends
- Inventory levels for Anta and Fila remained healthy at five months as of 2Q25
- Online discounts deepened by 1-2 percentage points year-on-year for both Anta and Fila
- New brands Descente and Kolon maintained limited online discounts, generally under 10%
Key Financials: 2023–2027F
| Year Ended 31 Dec (RMBm) |
2023 |
2024 |
2025F |
2026F |
2027F |
| Net Turnover |
62,356 |
70,826 |
77,625 |
84,388 |
92,099 |
| EBITDA |
20,354 |
22,066 |
24,186 |
26,280 |
28,707 |
| Operating Profit |
15,367 |
16,595 |
18,283 |
19,914 |
22,009 |
| Net Profit (Reported/Actual) |
10,236 |
15,596 |
13,865 |
15,224 |
16,891 |
| EPS (Fen) |
360.0 |
413.7 |
486.4 |
526.2 |
583.8 |
| PE (x) |
22.8 |
19.8 |
16.9 |
15.6 |
14.1 |
| P/B (x) |
4.5 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) |
11.5 |
11.1 |
9.9 |
8.8 |
7.8 |
| Dividend Yield (%) |
2.2 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
| Net Margin (%) |
16.4 |
16.8 |
17.9 |
18.0 |
18.3 |
| ROE (%) |
23.8 |
21.1 |
21.2 |
20.9 |
20.8 |
Retail Sales Growth Rate (YoY): Segment Trends
| Quarter |
Anta |
Fila |
Other Brands |
| 1Q21 |
+40-45% |
+75-80% |
+115-120% |
| 2Q21 |
+35-40% |
+30-35% |
+70-75% |
| 3Q21 |
low-teens |
mid-single digit |
+35-40% |
| 4Q21 |
mid-teens |
high-single digit |
+30-35% |
| 1Q22 |
high-teens |
mid-single digit |
+40-45% |
| 2Q22 |
-mid-single digit |
-high-single digit |
+20-25% |
| 3Q22 |
mid-single digit |
low-teens |
+40-45% |
| 4Q22 |
-high-single digit |
-low-teens |
low-teens |
| 1Q23 |
mid-single digit |
high-single digit |
+75-80% |
| 2Q23 |
high-single digit |
high-teens |
+70-75% |
| 3Q23 |
high-single digit |
low-teens |
+45-50% |
| 4Q23 |
high-teens |
25-30% |
+55-60% |
| 1Q24 |
mid-single digit |
high-single digit |
+25-30% |
| 2Q24 |
high-single digit |
mid-single digit |
+40-45% |
| 3Q24 |
mid-single digit |
-low-single digit |
+45-50% |
| 4Q24 |
high-single digit |
high-single digit |
+50-55% |
| 1Q25 |
high-single digit |
high-single digit |
+65-70% |
| 2Q25 |
low-single digit |
mid-single digit |
+50-55% |
Financial Position, Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
- Total assets projected to rise from RMB 112.6bn (2024) to RMB 131.0bn (2027F)
- Strong net cash position, with net debt/cash to equity improving from -51.0% (2024) to -62.9% (2027F)
- ROE remains robust, consistently above 20%
- Operating cash flow expected to grow from RMB 16.7bn (2024) to RMB 24.8bn (2027F)
Valuation, Risks & Recommendations
- DCF-based target price maintained at HK\$108.60, implying 20.9x 2025F PE and 19.3x 2026F PE
- Current valuation: 16.9x 2025F PE and 15.6x 2026F PE
- No earnings revision in this update
- Key risks:
- Lower-than-expected sales growth
- Deeper discounts
- Higher advertising & promotional expenses
Conclusion: Resilient Growth Amid Channel Transformation
Anta Sports stands at a pivotal juncture, combining short-term operational challenges in its core brand with exceptional growth across its broader brand portfolio. The company’s proactive channel restructuring, strong cash position, and aggressive store optimization plans underpin its confidence in achieving ambitious full-year targets. Investors can expect continued multi-brand momentum as Anta Sports leverages its scale and brand diversity to capture both mass and high-end sportswear demand in a rapidly evolving Chinese consumer environment.
Disclaimer
This article is based on research and analysis provided by UOB Kay Hian as of 16 July 2025. It is intended for informational purposes only and not as investment advice.
