Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: July 15, 2025

Singapore Retail Stocks: Technical Signals, Market Reversals, and Sector Insights for 2025

Market Recap: Volatility Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Earnings Anticipation

Global stock markets experienced heightened volatility following renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump targeting the European Union and Mexico. Investors braced for key inflation data while short-dated bond yields declined. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged past \$120,000, reflecting strong investor enthusiasm ahead of the US House of Representatives’ “Crypto Week.”

Equities, having recently reached new highs, now face a critical period as corporate earnings season begins. Wall Street strategists suggest that subdued profit expectations could fuel further gains if results meet or exceed forecasts. However, the looming August 1 tariff deadline has introduced fresh uncertainty. Early signals point to slightly higher inflation for consumers, as companies have started passing on increased import costs. Economists expect this trend to intensify as the year progresses, even as Treasury yields and the US dollar remain relatively stable.

Company Focus: Delfi Ltd – Technical Reversal Signals a Bullish Outlook

Delfi Ltd, a leading manufacturer and distributor of chocolate confectionery products across Southeast Asia, has shown a marked reversal in technical indicators, suggesting a strong bullish trend may be underway.

Technical Analysis Snapshot

• Entry Prices: \$0.78, \$0.72, \$0.68
• Supports: \$0.73 (Support 1), \$0.65 (Support 2)
• Stop Loss: \$0.62
• Resistances: \$0.85 (Resistance 1), \$1.02 (Resistance 2)
• Target Prices: \$0.92 (Target 1), \$1.00 (Target 2), \$1.04 (Target 3), \$1.25 (Target 4)

Key Technical Indicators

• Breakout Confirmation: Delfi has broken above a major downtrend line, with the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern—a classic bullish reversal signal.
• Ichimoku Cloud: The stock price closed above all Ichimoku indicators, reinforcing the bullish trend.
• MACD Momentum: Both the signal and MACD lines are rising strongly toward the zero line, with a positive histogram.
• Rate of Change (ROC): The 23-period ROC remains positive, suggesting sustained upward momentum.
• Directional Movement Index: Indicates consistent bullish strength.
• Volume: Healthy expansion in trading volume supports the upward move.

Delfi Ltd, recognized for its diverse chocolate and sugar confectionery offerings—including molded chocolate, dragees, enrobed wafers, and biscuits—serves a broad customer base in Southeast Asia. The technical outlook is notably positive, with several indicators aligning in favor of a continued rally.

Regional Spotlight: BGF Retail Faces Valuation Pressure Amid SSSG Challenges

BGF Retail is witnessing rising valuation pressure with expectations of a second consecutive quarter of negative Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) in Q2 2025, attributed to unfavorable weather conditions. Despite this, BGF Retail’s share price has risen since June 2025 on the back of voucher-driven expectations, with a conservatively estimated net topline boost of approximately W200bn anticipated in Q3 2025.

• Q2 2025 SSSG: Second straight quarter of negative growth, largely due to weak weather-related demand.
• Q3 2025 Outlook: Expected topline boost from government consumption vouchers, estimated at W200bn.
• Investment Rating: “Add” reiterated, with a lowered target price of W140,000, as sales growth is anticipated but valuation concerns remain elevated.

Sector and Investment Recommendations: Framework and Distribution

Stock Ratings Explained

• Add: Expected total return above 10% over the next 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return between 0% and 10% over 12 months.
• Reduce: Expected total return below 0% over 12 months.

Sector and Country Ratings

• Overweight: Positive recommendation; above-market weight advised.
• Neutral: Neutral recommendation; market-weight advised.
• Underweight: Negative recommendation; below-market weight advised.

Ratings Distribution (as of June 30, 2025)

A total of 561 companies were under coverage for the quarter ended June 30, 2025.

Disclosure, Distribution, and Jurisdictional Information

The report covers regulatory and distribution guidelines for various jurisdictions, highlighting the importance of compliance and the confidential nature of the analysis. The recommendations are tailored for institutional, professional, or sophisticated investors, and are not intended as direct offers or solicitations to retail investors in restricted jurisdictions.

The analysis and opinions provided are based on data believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Investors are encouraged to perform their own independent assessments and consult with professional advisors before making any investment decisions.

Conclusion

This comprehensive review underscores a cautiously optimistic stance on select retail stocks in Singapore and the region. Delfi Ltd stands out with clear technical buy signals and strong momentum, while BGF Retail’s outlook is mixed, balancing short-term challenges against potential voucher-driven gains. As markets face macroeconomic uncertainties and shifting policy landscapes, disciplined technical and fundamental analysis remains critical for successful investing in the retail sector.