Broker: UOB Kay Hian
Date of Report: 15 July 2025

China’s June 2025 Trade Surplus Surges as Exports Outperform Expectations

China’s Trade Performance: A Stronger June, but Uncertain Outlook

China’s trade sector showed a robust rebound in June 2025, with exports and imports both surpassing market expectations. The trade surplus widened substantially, fueled by a resurgence in exports to key Asian markets and a notable improvement in exports to the US, despite ongoing tariff concerns. However, the future remains clouded by unresolved Sino-US trade negotiations and the looming possibility of renewed tariffs.

Headline Trade Figures: Exports and Imports Outpace Forecasts

• Exports: Climbed 5.8% year-on-year (yoy) to US\$325.2 billion, exceeding Bloomberg’s consensus of 5.0% and outpacing May’s 4.8% yoy growth.
• Imports: Returned to positive territory, rising 1.1% yoy to US\$210.4 billion, a sharp turnaround from May’s 3.4% contraction and above expectations of 0.3% growth.
• Trade Surplus: Expanded to US\$114.8 billion, up from US\$103.2 billion in May.

Table: China Trade Data (US\$b, % yoy change)

Export Destinations: Mixed Performance Across Major Markets

China’s exports displayed divergent trends across its key trading partners:

• United States: Exports fell 16.1% yoy to US\$38.2 billion. Although still negative, this was a marked improvement from May’s -34.5% yoy, reflecting some easing of trade tensions.
• European Union: Growth moderated to 7.6% yoy (US\$49.2 billion), down from May’s 12.0% as trade protectionism weighed on performance.
• Japan: Exports maintained relatively stable growth at 6.6% yoy (US\$13.4 billion), up slightly from 6.2% in May.
• Hong Kong: Surged 16.7% yoy (US\$28.1 billion), an increase from 11.4% in May, marking a robust recovery.
• ASEAN: Rose 16.8% yoy (US\$58.2 billion), up from 14.8% in May, confirming Southeast Asia’s strength as a growth engine.

Product Categories: Motor Vehicles and Hi-Tech Exports Lead the Way

The recovery in exports was broad-based, with particularly strong gains in several product categories:

• Motor Vehicle Exports: Jumped 24.5% yoy to US\$77.3 billion, sharply higher than May’s 15.2% growth.
• Hi-tech Products: Exported US\$78.1 billion, up 6.9% yoy, compared to 4.9% in May.
• Mechanical & Electrical Products: Grew 8.2% yoy to US\$194.0 billion, slightly higher than May’s 7.2% increase.

Imports: Crude Oil and Integrated Circuits Boost Growth

China’s import sector returned to growth, led by key commodities and high-tech inputs:

• Crude Oil: Imports reached US\$24.2 billion, contracting 6.1% yoy but showing significant improvement from May’s -18.0% yoy.
• Copper Ore: Rose 16.6% yoy to US\$6.4 billion, up from 15.7% in May.
• Iron Ore: Fell 9.4% yoy to US\$9.8 billion, a marginal improvement from May’s -9.9%.
• Coal: Imports declined 47.1% yoy to US\$2.4 billion, worsening from May’s -40.3% due to seasonal demand shifts.
• Integrated Circuits: Imports surged 11.5% yoy to US\$34.6 billion, up from 8.9% in May, underscoring China’s ongoing push for tech self-reliance.
• Agricultural Products: Imports edged up 1.9% yoy to US\$18.5 billion, compared to 0.7% in May.

Table: Key Commodities and Products Trade Data (US\$b, % yoy change)

Outlook: Trade Uncertainty Looms Despite Strong Data

While June’s data reflect a broad-based recovery in China’s trading activities, the overall outlook remains uncertain. The improvement has been attributed in part to the interim suspension of punitive Sino-US tariffs until August. This could continue to buoy trade figures into July, but the direction beyond will hinge on the tariff policies set by the US administration. The unresolved trade deal between China and the US remains a critical wildcard for the remainder of 2025.

Conclusion

China’s June trade report demonstrates resilience in the face of global headwinds, with exports and imports both surprising on the upside. ASEAN and Hong Kong markets have emerged as bright spots, while exports to the US show tentative signs of recovery. However, the specter of renewed tariffs and protectionist measures means the optimism must be tempered with caution.

Contact for Further Information

For in-depth analysis and tailored investment advice, contact:

• Tham Mun Hon, CFA: +852 2236 6799, [email protected]
• Claire Wang: +852 2236 6761, [email protected]