UOB Kay Hian
Date of Report: Monday, 14 July 2025

Innovent Biologics: Poised to Dominate China’s Booming Weight Management Market with Breakthrough Mazdutide Launch

Innovent Biologics at a Glance

Innovent Biologics, Inc. (HKEX: 1801 HK) stands as a leading innovator in the Chinese biologics sector, with a diversified pipeline and a robust commercial strategy. The company’s strategic focus on cardiovascular and metabolism (CVM) therapeutics, alongside its oncology portfolio, positions it for accelerated growth in China’s rapidly expanding healthcare market.

• Share Price: HK\$80.55
• Target Price: HK\$110.00 (Upside: +36.6%)
• Market Cap: HK\$137,694.7m (US\$17,540.7m)
• 3-Month Avg Daily Turnover: US\$213.2m
• 52-Week High/Low: HK\$88.55 / HK\$28.65
• Major Shareholder: Dr. Michael Yu (6.4%)

Breakthrough Approval: Mazdutide Sets the Stage

Innovent has achieved a significant milestone with the June 2025 approval of Mazdutide—the world’s first GCG/GLP-1 receptor agonist—by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for weight management. This early mover advantage, combined with Mazdutide’s remarkable clinical outcomes and a competitive pricing strategy, is set to propel Innovent into a leadership position in China’s burgeoning obesity and weight management market.

Innovent’s Strategic Expansion into CVM

While oncology remains a core revenue driver, Innovent is aggressively expanding its presence in cardiovascular and metabolic disease therapeutics. Key highlights include:

• SINTBILO (Tafolecimab): PCSK-9 inhibitor for hypercholesterolemia, included in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) from January 2025.
• Mazdutide: Now approved for weight management; type 2 diabetes approval anticipated in 2H25.
• IBI112 (Picankibart): Recombinant anti-IL-23p19 antibody, targeting moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, with market approval expected in 2H25.

To support this portfolio, Innovent has built a dedicated general biomedicine commercial team of around 1,000 professionals, taking a differentiated multi-channel approach through hospitals, pharmacies, and online platforms.

Mazdutide: Clinical Data and Competitive Edge

As the first dual GCG/GLP-1 receptor agonist approved in China, Mazdutide both regulates appetite and reduces liver fat. Key phase III trial data (GLORY-1) highlight its competitive profile:

• Weight Loss: At week 48, 4-mg and 6-mg doses achieved mean reductions of 11.00% and 14.01%, respectively. A substantial 35.7% (4 mg) and 49.5% (6 mg) of participants lost ≥15% body weight.
• Liver Fat Reduction: For those with baseline liver fat ≥10%, fat content decreased by 65.85% (4 mg) and 80.24% (6 mg), versus 5.27% for placebo.
• Commercial Outlook: Robust clinical data and early approval are forecasted to drive blockbuster sales, with Mazdutide expected to contribute Rmb1.9b in revenue by 2027.

Comparison: Approved Weight Management Products in China (as of July 10, 2025)

*Body weight loss data based on clinical results of respective product.

China’s Expanding Obesity Market: A Massive Opportunity

China is home to over 500 million adults who are overweight or obese, with nearly 90% experiencing comorbidities such as metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease. The country’s obesity treatment market is forecast to grow at a seven-year CAGR of 47.7%, rising from US\$328.3 million in 2023 to US\$5.04 billion by 2030. Despite increasing competition, Mazdutide’s efficacy, dosing convenience, and competitive pricing are expected to secure a leading share in this high-growth sector.

Financial Performance and Outlook

Innovent is expected to deliver strong financial growth, driven by innovative products and effective commercial execution. Key financial forecasts include:

With product sales growth projected at 43% YoY in 2025, reaching Rmb11.8b, Innovent is expected to achieve positive adjusted earnings of Rmb827m in 2025—a nearly 150% YoY increase—underpinned by disciplined cost control and a diversified commercial portfolio.

R&D and Global Expansion: Innovative Assets in the Pipeline

Innovent continues to advance clinical and regulatory milestones with a series of innovative assets:

• IBI363: First-in-class PD-1/IL-2α-bias bispecific antibody fusion protein, showing promising efficacy and safety in NSCLC and melanoma; poised for accelerated overseas clinical development in 2H25.
• IBI343: Novel anti-CLDN18.2 ADC, also showing strong signals in early clinical trials with global expansion planned.
• Strategic Goal: Five registrational trial assets targeted by 2030, with ongoing pursuit of multinational partnerships.

Upcoming Regulatory Milestones and Product Launches

Innovent has a rich calendar of potential approvals and launches across oncology, CVM, and immunology. Key near-term events include:

• TYVYT and Fruquinitinib combinations in oncology, Jaypirca (Pirtobrutinib) for MCL, IBI-344 (Taletrectinib) for ROS1-positive NSCLC, Limertinib for EGFR-mutated NSCLC, IBI-311/Teprotumumab for thyroid eye disease, and continued expansion of Mazdutide for obesity and type 2 diabetes.

Risks to Watch

• Intensifying competition in the weight management sector
• Potential policy and regulatory uncertainties
• Risks related to R&D, new product launches, and business development
• Challenges in executing global partnerships

Valuation and Investment Recommendation

UOB Kay Hian maintains a BUY rating on Innovent Biologics, with a target price of HK\$110.00. This valuation is underpinned by a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a WACC of 11.0% and a terminal growth rate of 4%. Key share price catalysts include robust 2025 financial results, successful R&D milestones, ongoing business development, and new product launches.

Conclusion: Innovent Set for Blockbuster Growth

With the successful launch of Mazdutide and a powerful pipeline of CVM and oncology products, Innovent Biologics is strategically positioned to capture leadership in China’s exponentially growing weight management and broader biomedicine markets. Investors should watch for further clinical, regulatory, and commercial catalysts as Innovent builds on its first-mover advantage and innovative capabilities.