Broker: Maybank Investment Bank Berhad
Date of Report: June 2, 2025
CIMB Group Holdings: 1Q25 Results Signal Stability Amid Regional Volatility – Detailed Financial Analysis & Forecast
Overview: Solid Start to FY25 Despite Regional Challenges
CIMB Group Holdings, a leading ASEAN universal bank, reported its 1Q25 results, demonstrating resilience and operational stability even as regional market volatility intensifies. The group’s net profit of MYR1.97 billion for 1Q25 was in line with expectations, representing 26% of the full-year forecast. The “HOLD” recommendation is maintained, with a 12-month target price (TP) of MYR7.60, reflecting prudent expectations amidst CIMB’s broad ASEAN footprint.
Key Highlights
- Net profit: MYR1.97 billion (+2% YoY, +10% QoQ)
- Return on Equity (ROE): 11.4% for 1Q25, within management’s target of 11-11.5%
- Net Interest Margin (NIM): 2.16% (stable QoQ, -5bps YoY)
- Loan growth: 1.8% YoY reported, 4.4% YoY on constant currency basis
- Credit cost: 26bps for 1Q25, outperforming revised guidance of 25-35bps for FY25
- Dividend payout policy: 40-60% (forecast at 55% for FY25)
Share Price and Market Position
- Share Price (as at report): MYR6.93
- 12-month Price Target: MYR7.60 (+10%)
- 52-week high/low: MYR8.49 / MYR6.35
- Market Capitalisation: MYR74.5B (USD17.5B)
- Issued Shares: 10,750 million
- Free Float: 42.3%
- Major Shareholders: Khazanah Nasional (21.5%), Employees Provident Fund (17.3%), Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (6.4%)
Financial Performance: Detailed Breakdown
| FYE Dec (MYR m) |
FY23A |
FY24A |
FY25E |
FY26E |
FY27E |
| Operating income |
21,014 |
22,301 |
23,026 |
24,054 |
25,227 |
| Pre-provision profit |
11,149 |
11,881 |
12,150 |
12,695 |
13,355 |
| Core net profit |
6,981 |
7,728 |
7,708 |
8,058 |
8,723 |
| Core EPS (MYR) |
0.65 |
0.72 |
0.72 |
0.75 |
0.81 |
| Net DPS (MYR) |
0.43 |
0.47 |
0.40 |
0.41 |
0.45 |
| Core P/E (x) |
8.9 |
11.4 |
9.6 |
9.2 |
8.5 |
| P/BV (x) |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
| Net dividend yield (%) |
7.4 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
6.5 |
| Book value (MYR) |
6.41 |
6.45 |
6.78 |
7.12 |
7.48 |
| ROAE (%) |
10.7 |
11.2 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
11.1 |
Quarterly Results: 1Q25 Performance Metrics
- Operating income: MYR5,499 million (-2.3% YoY, +3.2% QoQ)
- Operating profit: MYR2,919 million (-5.1% YoY, +8.0% QoQ)
- Net profit: MYR1,973 million (+1.9% YoY, +9.6% QoQ)
- Cost-to-income ratio: 46.9% (vs 45.3% in 1Q24)
- Tax rate: 22.8%
- EPS (basic): 18.4 sen (+1.3% YoY)
Loan and Deposit Growth
- Total loans up 1.8% YoY; on constant currency basis, up 4.4% YoY
- Malaysian loans grew 2.4%, Indonesia 8.7%, Singapore 12.6%, Thailand contracted 0.5%
- Group deposits flat (+0.1% YoY), but up 2.7% on constant currency basis
- CASA (Current Account Savings Account) ratio improved to 43.8% at end-March 2025 from 43.1% in December 2024
- Loan/deposit ratio: 88.9% (from 88.3% at end-2024)
Net Interest Margin (NIM) and Non-Interest Income (NOII)
- NIM: Stable QoQ at 2.16%, down from 2.21% in FY24
- Malaysia NIM up 2bps QoQ to 1.79%
- Indonesia NIM up 11bps QoQ to 3.99%
- Thailand NIM up 4bps QoQ to 2.07%
- Singapore NIM down 12bps to 1.29%
- Management guides for FY25 NIM to be stable to -5bps
- NOII: Down 11% YoY in 1Q25
- Fees and commissions rose 6.9% YoY
- Other NOII fell due to a 7% YoY drop in trading and forex income and the absence of gains from NPL sales (Indonesia)
Operating Expenses and Efficiency
- Operating expenses up 1.1% YoY
- Personnel cost up 1.2% YoY
- Establishment costs down 6.3% YoY; admin costs down 4.7% YoY
- Marketing expenses surged 17.9% YoY
- Technology spend up 5% YoY
- Negative JAWS as operating income growth was -2.3% YoY
- Cost/income ratio: 46.9% in 1Q25 (vs 45.3% in 1Q24)
Asset Quality and Risk Management
- Gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio at 2.2% (up from 2.1% at end-2024)
- Credit cost at 26bps (vs 32bps in FY24)
- Management revises FY25 credit cost guidance to 25-35bps
- Loan loss coverage at 102.4% end-March 2025
- MYR100 million of management overlays applied, mainly in the SME segment
Capital Strength
- CET1 ratio: 14.7% at end-March 2025
- Total capital ratio: 18.3%
- Expectations of positive impact from credit RWA adjustments in 2027; possible negative impact in 2030 from market RWA adjustments (subject to BNM discussions)
Balance Sheet Snapshot
| MYR million |
FY23A |
FY24A |
FY25E |
FY26E |
FY27E |
| Total assets |
733,572 |
755,131 |
783,557 |
817,553 |
854,575 |
| Loans & advances |
429,450 |
442,164 |
460,976 |
479,956 |
501,648 |
| Deposits from customers |
482,426 |
496,394 |
509,366 |
528,586 |
551,262 |
| Total liabilities |
663,733 |
684,292 |
709,016 |
739,216 |
772,138 |
| Shareholders’ funds |
68,327 |
69,244 |
72,713 |
76,339 |
80,264 |
Key Ratios and Financial Metrics
- Net interest income growth (FY25E): -0.7%
- Non-interest income growth (FY25E): +6.8%
- Operating expenses growth (FY25E): +4.4%
- Loans/customer deposits (FY25E): 90.5%
- Net NPL ratio (FY25E): 1.0%
- Gross NPL ratio (FY25E): 2.3%
- Loan loss coverage (FY25E): 107.2%
- CET1 ratio (FY25E): 15.2%
- Risk-weighted capital ratio (FY25E): 18.7%
- ROAE (FY25E): 10.9%
- ROAA (FY25E): 1.0%
Regional Exposure: Opportunities and Risks
CIMB’s diversified operations across Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand offer growth opportunities but also expose the bank to regional economic headwinds and currency risks. The report highlights:
- Further rate cuts in Indonesia could pressure margins
- Weaker Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) may impact earnings translation from CIMB Niaga
- Economic volatility in ASEAN markets may affect overall performance
Forecasts and Outlook
- FY25/26 earnings forecasts recently revised down by 4-5% due to:
- Lower loan growth expectations amid slower economic growth
- Lower NIMs anticipated from potential rate cuts in 2H25
- Higher credit costs
- Dividend payout policy unchanged at 40-60%
- FY25E dividend payout expected at 55%
Historical Ratings and Target Prices
- Ratings fluctuated between “Buy” and “Hold” over the past three years
- Latest recommendation: “Hold” with a TP of MYR7.60
- Consensus net profit for FY25E: MYR8,092 million (Maybank IBG estimate: MYR7,708 million)
Conclusion: Prudent Positioning for an Uncertain Environment
CIMB Group Holdings remains a solid institution with robust capital ratios, stable returns, and effective risk management. Its regional presence presents both growth avenues and volatility risks. Investors can expect attractive dividend yields, but should remain mindful of the group’s exposure to ASEAN market dynamics and currency fluctuations. The “HOLD” stance reflects a balanced view, factoring in both CIMB’s strengths and the prevailing uncertainties in its operating environment.
Contact Information & Analyst Team
For further queries or detailed analysis, the comprehensive research team at Maybank Investment Bank Berhad remains available to provide insights across Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Hong Kong, India, and London.
This article delivers a thorough, point-by-point review of CIMB Group Holdings’ financial and operational performance, tailored for investors and financial professionals seeking actionable insights and detailed, up-to-date analysis.
