Singapore Stock Market Report: Singtel Analysis, Geo Energy Update & Fund Flow Trends (May 2025)

Lim & Tan Securities Pte Ltd

22 May 2025

Daily Market Review and Key Investment Ideas

Financial Market Overview

The FSSTI Index closed at 3,882.6, showing no change (0.0%) for the day, a 1.3% increase month-to-date (MTD), and a 2.5% increase year-to-date (YTD). The INDU Index closed at 41,860.4, down by -1.9% for the day, up 2.9% MTD, and down -1.6% YTD. The SPX Index closed at 5,844.6, down -1.6% for the day, up 4.9% MTD, and down -0.6% YTD. The CCMP Index closed at 18,872.6, down -1.4% for the day, up 8.2% MTD, and down -2.3% YTD. The UKX Index closed at 8,786.5, up 0.1% for the day, up 3.4% MTD, and up 7.5% YTD. The NKY Index closed at 37,299.0, down -0.6% for the day, up 3.5% MTD, and down -6.5% YTD. The HSI Index closed at 23,827.8, up 0.6% for the day, up 7.7% MTD, and up 18.8% YTD. The SHCOMP Index closed at 3,387.6, up 0.2% for the day, up 3.3% MTD, and up 1.1% YTD. The VIX Index is at 20.9, up 15.4% for the day, down -15.5% MTD, and up 20.3% YTD. Daily Market Value was S\$1,160.7 million, and Daily Market Volume was 982.2 million shares. The 52-week STI High was 4,005.2, and the 52-week STI Low was 3,198.4. [[1]]

Key Interest Rates

The 3 Month SGD SORA is at 2.3, down -0.2% for the day, down -3.3% MTD, and down -25.1% YTD. The SG 10 YR Bond Yield is at 2.5, up 0.4% for the day, up 1.5% MTD, and down -12.0% YTD. The US 10 YR Bond Yield is at 4.6, up 0.2% for the day, up 10.7% MTD, and up 0.9% YTD. [[1]]

US Futures

The Dow Jones is at 41,917.0, down -0.1% for the day, up 2.8% MTD, and up 0.3% YTD. The S&P 500 is at 5,861.5, showing no change (0.0%) for the day, up 4.9% MTD, and down -2.2% YTD. The NASDAQ is at 21,152.0, showing no change (0.0%) for the day, up 7.6% MTD, and down -1.4% YTD. [[1]]

Commodities Market

Gold is at 3,323.5, up 0.3% for the day, up 1.1% MTD, and up 26.6% YTD. Crude Oil is at 62.3, down -0.4% for the day, up 7.1% MTD, and down -13.1% YTD. The Baltic Dry Index is at 1,340.0, down -0.5% for the day, down -3.3% MTD, and up 34.4% YTD. Crude Palm Oil is at 3,905.0, up 0.3% for the day, showing no change (0.0%) MTD, and down -4.4% YTD. [[1]]

Market Commentary

USA tanked 1.4%-1.9% as US investors took profits after weaker than expected bond auctions last night. [[1]]

Idea of the Day: Singtel (Z74.SI)

Singtel (S\$3.85, unchanged) released FY25 results and announced that its underlying net profit – from which the Group’s core dividends are based – rose 9% to S\$2.47 billion for the full year, and would have increased 11% in constant currency terms, driven by robust performances from Optus, NCS and regional associates Airtel and AIS. Net profit was more than five times higher at S\$4.02 billion as a result of a net exceptional gain of S\$1.55 billion, mainly from the partial divestment of its Comcentre headquarters, compared to a net exceptional loss a year ago. [[1], [2]]

Operating revenue remained steady while EBITDA and EBIT grew 5% and 20% respectively. Optus saw a 55% increase in EBIT from improvements in its mobile business and cost management while NCS’ EBIT jumped 39% with continued improvements in delivery margins and cost optimisation. [[2]]

The Group continues to have a robust balance sheet with a cash balance of S\$2.77 billion. Net debt was higher due to spectrum payments in Singapore and Australia. However, almost 90% of debt is locked in at fixed rates while all foreign currency borrowings are hedged with limited US dollar exposure. The Group’s active capital management has generated S\$1.9 billion in recycling proceeds for the financial year. [[2], [3]]

Having recently divested a 1.2% stake in Airtel for S\$2 billion in mid-May, the Group has achieved more than half of its S\$6 billion mid-term asset recycling target announced a year ago, and is now raising this target to S\$9 billion. [[3]]

The Group will embark on a new capital management initiative in the form of a value realisation share buyback programme, following a change in dividend policy in May 2024 to include a value realisation dividend in addition to a core dividend. Singtel’s Board has authorised a share buyback programme of up to S\$2 billion over the next three years until financial year 2028. [[3]]

The regional associates’ pre-tax contribution grew 7%, mainly driven by strong performances from Airtel and AIS. In constant currency terms, their contribution would have increased 10%. Airtel delivered double-digit growth in operating revenue and EBITDA in both India and Africa in constant currency terms. AIS reported a solid operating performance with robust revenue growth and continued cost optimisation. Telkomsel’s net profit decreased due to lower mobile revenue which was partially offset by growth in IndiHome’s fixed broadband business. Globe’s earnings fell amid soft consumer spending caused by high inflation, typhoons and heat waves. [[3], [4]]

Optus’ operating revenue and EBITDA rose 1% and 6% respectively, lifted mainly by improved mobile performance and good cost management. Mobile service revenue was up 4%, primarily driven by price increases in postpaid. Home revenues from NBN and fixed wireless access were higher from ARPU growth. However, Wholesale and Enterprise & Business Fixed revenue fell, reflecting lower project based satellite revenue and a decline in its Enterprise Fixed business caused by price erosion and churn. Including lower depreciation and amortisation charges from a lower asset base, EBIT increased 55%. [[4], [5]]

Singtel Singapore remained resilient in a challenging market. EBITDA was up 2% due to growth in the small and medium-sized enterprises and ICT segments as well as cost control. Operating revenue fell 2%, primarily due to the continued decline in legacy carriage services. Mobile service revenue was stable with lower ARPU from intense price competition, inclusion of larger data bundles and aggressive roaming bundling in price plans. EBIT was stable after including higher amortisation charges from its recent acquisition of 700Mhz spectrum and increased depreciation. [[5]]

Singtel’s market cap stands at S\$63.5bln and currently trades at 22x forward PE and 2.7x PB, with a dividend yield of 4.4%. Consensus target price stands at S\$4.00, representing 4% upside from current share price. Singtel’s share price has performed well recently as a result of higher dividends and continued divestment efforts. Latest share buy back program announced should also help prop up the share price in the near term. However, valuations remain lofty and upside remains limited from here on. We recommend an “Accumulate on Weakness” rating on Singtel. [[5], [6]]

Other Highlights: Consensus Forward Dividend Yield (%)

Frasers Logistics Trust: 7.50
DBS Bank: 6.91
Mapletree Logistics Trust: 6.88
Mapletree Industrial Trust: 6.88
Mapletree Pan Asia Comm Trust: 6.75 [[7]]

Other Highlights: Lowest Consensus Forward P/E (X)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: 6.39
Jardine Cycle & Carriage: 7.56
Jardine Matheson: 8.37
UOB Bank: 9.97
OCBC Bank: 10.07 [[7]]

Other Highlights: Lowest Trailing P/B (X)

Hongkong Land: 0.39
UOL Group: 0.42
Jardine Matheson: 0.48
City Developments: 0.49
Mapletree Pan Asia Comm Trust: 0.66 [[7]]

Other Highlights: Lowest Trailing EV/EBITDA (X)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: 3.12
Genting Singapore: 5.27
Jardine Cycle & Carriage: 5.99
DFI Retail Group: 6.69
SATS: 8.51 [[7]]

Geo Energy Resources (RE4.SI)

Geo Energy Resources (\$0.35, unchanged) has doubled its sales volume to 3.5 million tonnes in 1Q2025 (1Q2024: 1.8 million tonnes) due to improved coal access in 2025 following the Group’s optimisation of its mining plans in 2024. Corresponding to higher sales volume, revenue increased 68% to US\$166.4 million in 1Q2025 (1Q2024: US\$99.0 million) despite lower average selling price (“ASP”) of US\$46.98 per tonne in 1Q2025 (1Q2024: US\$54.68 per tonne). The Group’s cash profit per tonne from coal mining for 1Q2025 remained strong at an average of US\$11.60 per tonne (1Q2024: US\$13.18 per tonne). This is in part due to the Group’s resilient cost model where its cash cost moved in tandem with ICI4 prices. [[7], [8]]

Furthermore, the Group continues to improve its cost efficiencies through the optimisation of its mining plan. The Group achieved net profit growth of 63% to US\$14.1 million in 1Q2025 (1Q2024: US\$8.7 million) and is ahead of its targeted production volume of 10.5 – 11.5 million tonnes for 2025. [[8]]

Committed to rewarding shareholders, the Company has declared interim dividend of 0.25 SG cent per share in 1Q2025, which is 25% higher than 1Q2024’s interim dividend of 0.2 SG cent per share. While 1Q2025 interim dividend implies a dividend payout ratio of 19%, the Company remains committed to its dividend policy of 30% and will assess the full-year results performance at year end before declaring the final dividend. [[8]]

Strategic investor, Resource Invest AG, signed a MOU to invest US\$50-US\$100 million in the Group’s subsidiary, PT Marga Bara Jaya (“MBJ”). Separately, the Group signed two non-binding term sheets of usage leases with two major mining groups for up to an aggregate of 25 million tonnes annually for up to 10 and 50 years. MBJ’s integrated infrastructure is expected to be completed by June 2026, which will allow the Group to progressively increase TRA’s production to 20 – 25 million tonnes per annum and yield substantial logistical savings for TRA’s operations. In addition, the Group will be able to diversify and generate recurring revenue stream as an infrastructure provider. [[8], [9]]

China’s latest energy policy, announced in April 2025, extends coal plant construction through 2027, where they are needed to meet peak power demand or stabilise the grid. The plan follows a report from the China Coal Association April 2025 that said China’s coal consumption would not peak until 2028. Coal is by far the cheapest and largest source of thermal power production in Asia, and accounted for around 56% of regional electricity supplies in 2024. Due to economic uncertainties, there is a need to produce the cheapest power possible, Asian power producers will need to step up the use of coal and likely cut back on the use of pricier fuels in their generation mix. [[9]]

The US plans to boost the coal industry by promoting coal and coal technology exports, facilitating international offtake agreements, and accelerating development of coal technologies as power demand rises due to a resurgence of domestic manufacturing and the construction of AI data processing centres. ICI4 coal prices are forecasted to average around US\$48-49 per tonne in 2025 and 2026, according to Argus Seaborne Coal outlook and SGX M42 Futures Index Price. [[9], [10]]

Commenting on the Group’s 1Q2025 results and business outlook, Mr Charles Antonny Melati, Executive Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of the Group, said: “We have made a strong start to the year, driven by the dedication and commitment of the entire team. Our proven and resilient business model continues to effectively manage our risks and deliver healthy returns to our shareholders. Combined with a clear, concise growth roadmap, we are well-positioned to unlock the full potential of our energy assets and our integrated infrastructure business. Building on this momentum, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our strategic priorities and accelerate growth in 2025 and beyond, propelling us closer to our vision of becoming a billion-dollar energy group.” [[10]]

At 35 cents, Geo Energy is capitalized at \$495mln and trades at an undemanding forward P/E ratio of 5.9x. Price-to-book stands at 0.8x and dividend yield is 5.1%. Geo Energy’s 1Q numbers are in line with our expectations as the Group benefited from improved coal volumes through better production efficiencies. Major tailwinds for the company include 1) expected increase in 2025 coal sales, 2) addition of coal reserves, and 3) strategic infrastructure investment for long-term growth. Bloomberg consensus TP of S\$0.59 represents a potential 68% upside. Geo Energy will be presenting today at our lunchtime monthly webinar series at 12pm. [[10], [11]]

Investors can use the following details to join:

Link: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89967109602?pwd=UubpBdMwD7hIGqjNKVeSC0f1VvojKa.1
Meeting ID: 899 6710 9602
Passcode: 151409 [[11]]

Macro Market News Affecting US, Hong Kong and China Markets

BCA Research wrote that their Commodity strategists stay short oil and long gold as global demand weakens and OPEC+ offers no support. Brent’s floor has likely fallen to \$50, and bearish supply and demand forces continue to dominate the price outlook. Crude consumption forecasts from major agencies are still too optimistic and vulnerable to downward revisions. Moreover, underlying demand remains soft across top consumers. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is unlikely to cut production, adding further downside risk to prices. The coalition will remain a source of negative news in the weeks ahead. Gold remains the preferred hedge as cyclical commodities weaken. Meanwhile, BCA’s MacroQuant model sees downside risks to US growth and upside risks to inflation. [[11], [12]]

The model tracks hundreds of leading indicators and applies the economic and financial market frameworks of BCA’s Global Investment Strategy service to generate actionable investment recommendations. Going into May, the model sees worrying signs for the US economy. Soft data weakened in April, in contrast to hard data that held up well. Moreover, the model’s inflation component signals upside risks, flagging the increasing prices paid components of PMIs and rising household inflation expectations. [[12], [13]]

With such a stagflationary brew, the model recommends underweighting stocks. Separately, April’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report eased recession concerns, but underlying trends support our defensive positioning. Nonfarm payrolls rose 177k, but downward revisions to prior months totaled 58k, leaving the three-month average at 155k. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, underemployment ticked down to 7.8%, and wage growth remained steady at 3.8% y/y. Beneath the surface, low hiring and low firing continues to define the labor market. Leading indicators are weakening. [[13]]

With inventories high and new orders contracting, employment remains vulnerable. Markets responded with a bear flattening as yields rose along with equities. However, growth will slow below potential, unemployment will rise and consumption will buckle. Equities are not fully pricing recession risks. With the Fed focused on anchoring inflation expectations, policy will remain tighter than usual. [[13]]

Maintain an overweight in government bonds and long-duration exposure, and an underweight in equities and spread products. Meanwhile, the near-term path to a comprehensive US-China trade deal remains uncertain. With US inflation still elevated and recession risks building, the US may eventually grant more concessions, strengthening China’s bargaining position. [[13]]

Still, the damage to China’s export sector is already visible, and stimulus measures remain insufficient to offset the drag. Beijing’s policy lag means its economy will slow over the next two quarters. Investors should favor government bonds, defensive sectors, and A-shares over offshore Chinese equities through this period of stress. [[13]]

The Chinese government reminded officials around the country to cut wasteful spending on travel, food and office space, adding to signs of an austerity push by President Xi Jinping as the economy recovers. The notice issued by the government and ruling Communist Party also covered outlays on receptions and alcohol and cigarettes, the official Xinhua News Agency said. It calls for “strict diligence and thrift, and opposes extravagance and waste”, Xinhua said, adding that “waste is shameful and economy is glorious”. The rules amount to a reiteration of Xi’s campaign for officials to cut spending as a drop in revenue from land sales drains budgets and local governments confront a huge debt burden. [[13], [14]]

The central government told officialdom in late 2023 to “get used to belt-tightening”, reinforcing Xi’s campaign to rein in corruption and displays of wealth. Last year, Beijing kicked off its largest effort in years to address risks from local authority debt, a move aimed at cutting default risks and giving local governments room to support economic growth. [[14]]

Share Transactions (1 May’25 – 21 May’25)

Acquisitions

Cordlife Group Ltd: Martinal Best Ltd acquired 686,200 shares at S\$0.25, new balance is 26,202,866 shares (10.22%). [[15]]
Ho Bee Land: Chua Thian Poh acquired 30,000 shares at S\$1.77, new balance is 502,311,850 shares (75.65%). [[15]]
Mapletree Industrial Trust: Cheah Kim Teck acquired 100,000 shares at S\$1.93, new balance is 350,000 shares (0.012%). [[15]]
Cosmosteel: Jack Ong acquired 5,550,000 shares at S\$0.22, new balance is 43,442,096 shares (16.62%). [[15]]
Riverstone: Wong Teek Son acquired 1,000,000 shares at S\$0.72, new balance is 762,001,120 shares (51.4%). [[15]]
Frencken Group Ltd: Gooi Soon Chai acquired 45,000 shares, new balance is 101,390,091 shares (23.74%). [[15]]
Wingtai Holdings Ltd: Cheung Wai Keung acquired 150,000 shares, new balance is 471,384,859 shares (61.78%). [[15]]

Disposals

Boustead Singapore Ltd: Fidelity disposed of 481,600 shares at S\$1.05, new balance is 25,226,266 shares (5.13%). [[15]]
Tricklestar Ltd: Harald disposed of 2,000,000 shares at S\$0.029, new balance is 12,934,867 shares (8.53%). [[15]]

Share Buyback

HK Land: 480,000 shares at US\$5.24, cumulative purchases of 7,863,500. [[15]]
APAC Realty: 198,900 shares at S\$0.435, cumulative purchases of 1,362,600 (3.8% of mandate). [[15]]
Global Investment Limited: 300,000 shares at S\$0.127, cumulative purchases of 3,900,000 (2.4% of mandate). [[15]]
Olam: 200,000 shares at S\$0.93, cumulative purchases of 5,957,100 (3.2% of mandate). [[15]]
SGX: 22,400 shares at S\$13.95, cumulative purchases of 1,357,400 (1.3% of mandate). [[15]]
UOB: 300,000 shares at S\$35.41, cumulative purchases of 2,502,100 (3.0% of mandate). [[15]]
Zheneng Jinjiang Holding Co Ltd: 150,000 shares at S\$0.45, cumulative purchases of 15,045,200 (10.3% of mandate). [[15]]
ESR REIT: 188,700 shares at S\$2.18, cumulative purchases of 188,700 (0.2% of mandate). [[15]]
Innotek Ltd: 400,000 shares at S\$0.36, cumulative purchases of 400,000 (1.7% of mandate). [[15]]
Q&M Dental: 365,300 shares at S\$0.315, cumulative purchases of 365,300 (0.4% of mandate). [[15]]
Stoneweg European REIT: 37,000 shares at EUR1.47, cumulative purchases of 106,300 (0.2% of mandate). [[15]]
OUE Ltd: 59,000 shares at S\$0.95, cumulative purchases of 69,000 (0.1% of mandate). [[15]]

Fund Flow Data

Week of 12 May 2025: Institutional investors net sell (-S\$47.9m) vs. (+S\$98.0m) a week ago. Retail investors net buy (+S\$56.3m) vs. (-S\$134.3m) a week ago. [[16]]

Top 10 Institution Net Buy (+) Stocks (S\$M) Week of 12 May

DBS: 24.2
UOB: 21.8
SIA: 14.7
Jardine Matheson: 11.6
CapitaLand Investment: 8.2
Venture Corporation: 6.2
UMS: 6.2
Frasers Hospitality Trust: 6.1
ComfortDelGro: 5.8
Hongkong Land: 5.5 [[16]]

Top 10 Institution Net Sell (-) Stocks (S\$M) Week of 12 May

OCBC: (45.3)
SGX: (14.9)
Thai Beverage: (13.5)
CapitaLand Ascendas REIT: (13.0)
ST Engineering: (12.3)
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust: (9.1)
Keppel DC REIT: (8.8)
Frasers Centrepoint Trust: (8.4)
SingPost: (7.8)
Riverstone: (7.5) [[16]]

Top 10 Retail Net Buy (+) Stocks (S\$M) Week of 12 May

ST Engineering: 31.4
SGX: 25.0
Thai Beverage: 22.4
Singtel: 22.0
OCBC: 19.8
Mapletree Industrial Trust: 15.3
SingPost: 13.7
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust: 13.1
Genting Singapore: 9.1
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: 7.0 [[16]]

Top 10 Retail Net Sell (-) Stocks (S\$M) Week of 12 May

DBS: (39.0)
SIA: (39.0)
UOB: (13.2)
Keppel: (9.3)
UMS: (8.6)
Frencken: (8.4)
Yangzijiang Financial: (6.1)
Hongkong Land: (5.9)
Frasers Hospitality Trust: (5.7)
Venture Corporation: (4.6) [[16]]

Institutional Investors Net Buy/Sell (S\$M)

Sector	21-Apr-25	28-Apr-25	5-May-25	12-May-25
Consumer Cyclicals	1.4	5.6	5.1	(8.7)
Consumer Non-Cyclicals	6.3	(2.7)	0.7	(16.0)
Energy/Oil & Gas	1.7	(0.3)	0.8	1.2
Financial Services	(180.4)	76.9	(88.1)	(3.4)
Health care	(2.6)	0.9	(0.8)	(9.2)
Industrials	13.0	86.7	64.1	21.5
Materials & Resources	1.4	0.8	(0.0)	1.1
Real Estate (excl. REITs)	1.9	11.4	17.4	11.8
REITs	(47.6)	3.4	0.8	(57.2)
Technology (Hardware/Software)	(4.0)	(38.5)	(11.4)	19.4
Telcos	25.0	25.8	110.0	(4.6)
Utilities	(9.0)	25.2	(0.5)	(3.7)

[[17]]

Source: Singapore Exchange. Sectors are categorized by SGX. REITs refer to Real Estate Investment Trusts.

Retail Investors Net Buy/Sell (S\$M)

Sector	21-Apr-25	28-Apr-25	5-May-25	12-May-25
Consumer Cyclicals	(6.9)	5.0	(2.1)	13.0
Consumer Non-Cyclicals	(18.0)	5.8	(11.5)	16.6
Energy/Oil & Gas	(4.0)	2.7	(0.5)	(1.3)
Financial Services	127.8	(29.4)	(34.5)	(17.5)
Health care	3.3	0.0	10.4	7.8
Industrials	(13.2)	(83.3)	(80.4)	7.5
Materials & Resources	(1.3)	(1.6)	0.0	(0.6)
Real Estate (excl. REITs)	(13.8)	(7.1)	(11.5)	(9.6)
REITs	(23.1)	(11.8)	46.3	48.2
Technology (Hardware/Software)	(1.5)	48.4	6.3	(26.6)
Telcos	(51.5)	(27.7)	(60.2)	22.5
Utilities	0.0	(15.2)	3.5	(3.8)

[[18]]