CGS International

May 16, 2025

Singapore’s NODX Growth Surges: A One-Off Spike or Sustainable Trend?

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) experienced a significant boost in April 2025, prompting questions about the sustainability of this growth. This article delves into the details of the NODX expansion, the factors driving it, and the potential challenges that lie ahead.

NODX Expansion: A Detailed Overview

• In April 2025, Singapore’s NODX grew by 12.4% year-on-year, a substantial increase from the 5.4% gain in March 2025 [[1]].
• This figure surpassed both the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 4.3% and CGS International’s forecast of 2.0% [[1]].
• The growth was fueled by robust gains in both electronics and non-electronics exports [[1]].

Electronics NODX: Key Growth Drivers

• Electronics NODX saw an impressive 23.5% year-on-year growth, nearly double the 12.2% growth in March 2025 [[1]].
• Key contributors to this growth included:
  • PCs (+124.3%) [[1]]
  • Disk media products (+33.0%) [[1]]
  • ICs (+23.3%) [[1]]

Non-Electronics NODX: Factors Behind the Surge

• Non-electronics NODX increased by 9.3% year-on-year, up from 3.7% in the previous month [[1]].
• The primary drivers were:
  • Non-monetary gold (+80.4%) [[1]]
  • Structures of ships & boats and specialised machinery (+7.2%) [[1]]

Trade Balance: Surpassing New Heights

• Singapore’s trade balance surged to S\$11.6 billion in April 2025 [[1]].
• This marked the first time it exceeded the S\$11 billion level [[1]].

Factors Driving the NODX Increase

Surge in Exports to Indonesia

• Exports to Indonesia rose sharply by 111.2% year-on-year (March 25: 62.9%) [[1]].
• This increase was largely due to higher exports of non-monetary gold [[1]].
• Increased gold demand in Indonesia was attributed to a sharp rise in prices, prompting rush purchases [[1]].
• The national “Religious Holiday Allowance” (Tunjangan Hari Raya) coincided with this period, further aiding consumer purchases [[1]].
• However, this impact is expected to diminish as consumer purchasing power may be limited without the holiday allowance, even if gold prices remain elevated [[1]].

Front-Loading Activities

• Despite Trump’s temporary exemption of electronics from tariffs, front-loading activities continued [[1]].
• Shipments to the US remained modest (Apr 25: 1.2%) [[1]].
• Shipments to east Asia reached new highs, reflecting strong business inventory accumulation pending tariff impact [[1]].

Trade Outlook: Cautious Stance

• The broader trade outlook remains cautious due to persistent tensions between the US and China, despite a temporary truce involving reduced tariffs on China [[1]].

Forecasts and Tariff Uncertainties

• CGS International maintains its 2025 NODX growth forecast at 3.3% year-on-year [[1]].
• NODX growth is expected to moderate in 2H25F as front-loading fades and the impact of new tariffs begins to filter through [[1]].
• Lingering geopolitical uncertainties are likely to keep external pressures elevated [[1]].
• President Trump’s intention to introduce sector-specific tariffs on electronics and pharmaceuticals poses downside risks to Singapore’s NODX growth [[1]].

Singapore’s Trade Performance: Key Highlights

Table: Singapore Trade Performance

Singapore’s Non-Oil Domestic Exports by Component

Non-Oil Domestic Exports by Country

CGSI’s Key Macro Forecasts