CGS International
May 15, 2025
Genting Singapore: Staying the Course for 2H25F Improvement
Key Takeaways from Genting Singapore’s 1Q25 Performance
- Genting Singapore’s (GENS) 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA of S\$235.8 million was slightly below expectations, accounting for 22.3%/22.8% of CGS International’s and Bloomberg consensus’s FY25F estimates [[1]].
- Profitability was impacted by fewer visits to Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) year-over-year, attributed to a high base in 1Q24 and ongoing upgrading works [[1]].
- New attractions set to open in 2H25F are expected to drive half-on-half earnings growth through increased footfall and improved operating leverage [[1]].
- CGS International reiterates an Add rating with an unchanged target price of S\$1.05 [[1]].
1Q25 Performance Analysis: Limited Festive Season Boost
- 1Q25 revenue decreased by 20.2% year-over-year to S\$626.2 million, primarily due to softer gaming revenue, which also declined by 20.2% year-over-year. GENS attributed this to lower VIP rolling win rates [[1]].
- Lower visitorship and tourism spending at RWS during the Chinese New Year festive season in 1Q25, compared to 1Q24, alongside a reduction in available room inventory due to renovations at Hard Rock Hotel, contributed to a 9.5% year-over-year decline in non-gaming revenues. This also negatively impacted the mass gaming sub-segment, which relies on transient, casual gamers [[1]].
- GENS’s adjusted EBITDA of S\$235.8 million (-36.2% year-over-year/+4.6% quarter-over-quarter) resulted in a margin compression of 9.5 percentage points. This compression is likely due to operating expenses incurred ahead of the opening of the Singapore Oceanarium, The Laurus (an all-suite hotel), and the WEAVE lifestyle enclave in 3Q25F, according to GENS [[1]].
Upcoming Attractions and Tourism Outlook for Genting Singapore
- Despite potential headwinds in Singapore’s tourism industry due to macroeconomic factors, the completion of upgrading works across RWS in 2H25F is expected to attract more visitors through complementary offerings and increased hotel room inventory [[2]].
- New attractions include the Singapore Oceanarium and new retail and dining concepts, such as the debut of luxury dining destinations KA-MON and Sugarra, which opened in 1Q25. These are expected to attract both tourists and locals [[2]].
Investment Thesis: Earnings Recovery Expected in 2H25F
- CGS International maintains an Add rating, anticipating half-on-half improvement in profitability in 2H25F with the launch of new attractions within RWS [[3]].
- FY25F-27F estimates remain unchanged for now, with the target price of S\$1.05 pegged at 8x FY26F EV/EBITDA, 0.5 standard deviations below GENS’s 5-year mean, reflecting a lack of growth within Singapore’s tourism industry [[3]].
- GENS is seen at an inflection point of valuation, currently trading at a trough valuation of 5x 12-month forward rolling EV/EBITDA. Potential re-rating catalysts include better-than-expected popularity of new attractions and a regional revitalization of the travel industry boosting tourist arrivals to Singapore [[3]].
- Downside risks include delayed openings of new attractions and softer macroeconomic conditions resulting in slow footfall after new attractions are rolled out in 2H25F [[3]].
Financial Summary and Key Metrics
Key financial indicators for Genting Singapore include:
- Revenue (S\$m): Dec-23A: 2,418, Dec-24A: 2,530, Dec-25F: 2,646, Dec-26F: 3,031, Dec-27F: 3,173 [[4]]
- Operating EBITDA (S\$m): Dec-23A: 1,025, Dec-24A: 960, Dec-25F: 1,057, Dec-26F: 1,249, Dec-27F: 1,302 [[4]]
- Net Profit (S\$m): Dec-23A: 634.4, Dec-24A: 594.2, Dec-25F: 604.2, Dec-26F: 687.6, Dec-27F: 695.3 [[4]]
- Normalised EPS (S\$): Dec-23A: 0.053, Dec-24A: 0.049, Dec-25F: 0.050, Dec-26F: 0.057, Dec-27F: 0.058 [[4]]
- Normalised EPS Growth: Dec-23A: 86.5%, Dec-24A: (6.3%), Dec-25F: 1.7%, Dec-26F: 13.8%, Dec-27F: 1.1% [[4]]
- FD Normalised P/E (x): Dec-23A: 13.99, Dec-24A: 14.94, Dec-25F: 14.70, Dec-26F: 12.91, Dec-27F: 12.77 [[4]]
- DPS (S\$): Dec-23A: 0.035, Dec-24A: 0.040, Dec-25F: 0.040, Dec-26F: 0.040, Dec-27F: 0.040 [[4]]
- Dividend Yield: Dec-23A: 4.76%, Dec-24A: 5.44%, Dec-25F: 5.44%, Dec-26F: 5.44%, Dec-27F: 5.44% [[5]]
- EV/EBITDA (x): Dec-23A: 5.19, Dec-24A: 5.60, Dec-25F: 5.18, Dec-26F: 4.65, Dec-27F: 4.81 [[5]]
- P/FCFE (x): Dec-23A: 15.69, Dec-24A: 19.45, Dec-25F: 30.40, Dec-26F: 57.61, Dec-27F: 58.76 [[5]]
- Net Gearing: Dec-23A: (44.8%), Dec-24A: (43.2%), Dec-25F: (40.3%), Dec-26F: (35.6%), Dec-27F: (30.0%) [[5]]
- P/BV (x): Dec-23A: 1.08, Dec-24A: 1.07, Dec-25F: 1.05, Dec-26F: 1.03, Dec-27F: 1.02 [[5]]
- ROE: Dec-23A: 7.84%, Dec-24A: 7.21%, Dec-25F: 7.23%, Dec-26F: 8.07%, Dec-27F: 8.02% [[5]]
Peer Analysis and Market Positioning
A comparative analysis against key competitors provides additional context to Genting Singapore’s valuation and growth prospects. The table below summarizes critical metrics as of May 14, 2025 [[3]]:
| Company |
Ticker |
Recom. |
Price (lcl curr) |
TP (lcl curr) |
Market Cap (US\$ m) |
CY25F P/E |
CY26F P/E |
3-year EPS CAGR (%) |
CY25F Div. Yield (%) |
CY26F Div. Yield (%) |
Net Gearing (%) |
Recur. ROE (%) |
EV/ EBITDA (x) |
FD Core P/E (x) |
P/BV (x) |
| Genting Singapore |
GENS SP |
Add |
0.735 |
1.05 |
6,809 |
14.7 |
12.9 |
4.4% |
5.4% |
5.4% |
1.1 |
7.2% |
5.2 |
14.7 |
1.1 |
| Genting Malaysia |
GENM MK |
Add |
1.78 |
3.65 |
2,334 |
10.1 |
8.1 |
24.0% |
9.3% |
10.1% |
0.7 |
7.4% |
3.8 |
10.1 |
0.7 |
| Genting Bhd |
GENT MK |
Add |
3.29 |
6.00 |
2,931 |
7.0 |
6.4 |
N.A. |
4.6% |
4.6% |
0.4 |
5.1% |
4.8 |
7.0 |
0.4 |
| Paradise (Korean peer) |
034230 KS |
Add |
12,900 |
15,000 |
831 |
15.5 |
14.1 |
10.2% |
1.2% |
1.2% |
0.7 |
4.5% |
8.4 |
15.5 |
0.7 |
| Grand Korea Leisure |
114090 KS |
Add |
12,820 |
14,000 |
557 |
16.2 |
14.0 |
25.0% |
3.1% |
3.6% |
1.8 |
11.3% |
7.3 |
16.2 |
1.8 |
| Kangwon Land |
035250 KS |
Add |
16,970 |
19,000 |
2,549 |
11.2 |
10.5 |
-8.7% |
5.2% |
5.6% |
0.9 |
8.1% |
1.0 |
11.2 |
0.9 |
| Melco Resorts & Entertainment |
MLCO US |
NR |
6.28 |
NA |
2,672 |
22.3 |
14.6 |
89.0% |
0.4% |
2.1% |
NA |
-13.2% |
8.1 |
22.3 |
NA |
| MGM Resorts International |
MGM US |
NR |
34.90 |
NA |
9,498 |
16.6 |
14.2 |
6.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
2.8 |
27.4% |
3.1 |
16.6 |
2.8 |
| Wynn Macau Ltd |
1128 HK |
NR |
5.56 |
NA |
3,745 |
11.6 |
9.9 |
4.3% |
4.5% |
5.2% |
NA |
-20.4% |
7.7 |
11.6 |
NA |
| Wynn Resorts Ltd |
WYNN US |
NR |
96.79 |
NA |
10,120 |
19.4 |
16.8 |
10.1% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
NA |
-174.9% |
9.0 |
19.4 |
NA |
| Las Vegas Sands Corp |
LVS US |
NR |
42.32 |
NA |
29,904 |
17.1 |
15.0 |
15.7% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
9.4 |
59.1% |
9.4 |
17.1 |
9.4 |
ESG Assessment: Genting Singapore’s Sustainability Initiatives
- Genting Singapore received a B rating from LSEG for its combined ESG score in 2023 [[4]].
- The company operates in a highly regulated industry and supports national interests in promoting responsible gaming [[4]].
- The Resorts World Sentosa 2.0 (RWS 2.0) Waterfront Development aims to reduce construction footprint and enhance energy efficiency [[4]].
- Recent controversies include fines issued by the Gaming Regulatory Authority (GRA) of Singapore for customer due diligence failures. However, no systemic risk to compliance is foreseen as GENS collaborates with regulators to enhance internal processes and controls [[4]].
- GENS has introduced a facial recognition program to screen for patrons on terrorist lists or barred patrons to support compliance efforts against money laundering and terrorism financing [[5]].
- Potential for improvement exists within its G pillar, driven by increased disclosures under its corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy [[5]].
Detailed Financial Analysis and Projections
The following sections provide an in-depth view of Genting Singapore’s financial health, growth drivers, and key ratios.
Profit & Loss Statement (S\$m)
- Total Net Revenues: Dec-23A: 2,419, Dec-24A: 2,534, Dec-25F: 2,647, Dec-26F: 3,033, Dec-27F: 3,174 [[5]]
- Gross Profit: Dec-23A: 907, Dec-24A: 855, Dec-25F: 942, Dec-26F: 1,098, Dec-27F: 1,123 [[5]]
- Operating EBITDA: Dec-23A: 1,025, Dec-24A: 960, Dec-25F: 1,057, Dec-26F: 1,249, Dec-27F: 1,302 [[5]]
- Net Profit: Dec-23A: 634, Dec-24A: 594, Dec-25F: 604, Dec-26F: 688, Dec-27F: 695 [[5]]
Cash Flow Statement (S\$m)
- EBITDA: Dec-23A: 1,025, Dec-24A: 960, Dec-25F: 1,057, Dec-26F: 1,249, Dec-27F: 1,302 [[5]]
- Cashflow From Operations: Dec-23A: 959, Dec-24A: 860, Dec-25F: 1,051, Dec-26F: 1,236, Dec-27F: 1,241 [[5]]
- Capex: Dec-23A: -328, Dec-24A: -423, Dec-25F: -759, Dec-26F: -1,082, Dec-27F: -1,090 [[5]]
- Dividends Paid: Dec-23A: -423, Dec-24A: -483, Dec-25F: -483, Dec-26F: -483, Dec-27F: -604 [[5]]
- Total Cash Generated: Dec-23A: 84, Dec-24A: -27, Dec-25F: -191, Dec-26F: -329, Dec-27F: -452 [[5]]
- Free Cashflow To Equity: Dec-23A: 566, Dec-24A: 456, Dec-25F: 292, Dec-26F: 154, Dec-27F: 151 [[5]]
- Free Cashflow To Firm: Dec-23A: 570, Dec-24A: 460, Dec-25F: 292, Dec-26F: 154, Dec-27F: 151 [[5]]
Balance Sheet (S\$m)
- Total Cash And Equivalents: Dec-23A: 3,669, Dec-24A: 3,588, Dec-25F: 3,397, Dec-26F: 3,068, Dec-27F: 2,616 [[6]]
- Total Current Assets: Dec-23A: 3,957, Dec-24A: 3,912, Dec-25F: 3,619, Dec-26F: 3,305, Dec-27F: 2,869 [[6]]
- Fixed Assets: Dec-23A: 4,960, Dec-24A: 5,075, Dec-25F: 5,455, Dec-26F: 6,079, Dec-27F: 6,667 [[6]]
- Total Equity: Dec-23A: 8,192, Dec-24A: 8,298, Dec-25F: 8,419, Dec-26F: 8,624, Dec-27F: 8,715 [[6]]
Key Ratios and Growth Drivers
- Revenue Growth: Dec-23A: 40.1%, Dec-24A: 4.6%, Dec-25F: 4.6%, Dec-26F: 14.6%, Dec-27F: 4.7% [[6]]
- Operating EBITDA Growth: Dec-23A: 35.4%, Dec-24A: (5.7%), Dec-25F: 11.9%, Dec-26F: 18.1%, Dec-27F: 4.3% [[6]]
- Operating EBITDA Margin: Dec-23A: 41.5%, Dec-24A: 37.3%, Dec-25F: 40.0%, Dec-26F: 41.2%, Dec-27F: 41.0% [[6]]
- Net Cash Per Share (S\$): Dec-23A: 0.30, Dec-24A: 0.30, Dec-25F: 0.28, Dec-26F: 0.25, Dec-27F: 0.22 [[6]]
- BVPS (S\$): Dec-23A: 0.68, Dec-24A: 0.69, Dec-25F: 0.70, Dec-26F: 0.71, Dec-27F: 0.72 [[6]]
- ROIC (%): Dec-23A: 13.6%, Dec-24A: 12.7%, Dec-25F: 13.5%, Dec-26F: 14.9%, Dec-27F: 13.7% [[6]]
- ROCE (%): Dec-23A: 9.3%, Dec-24A: 8.6%, Dec-25F: 9.0%, Dec-26F: 10.1%, Dec-27F: 10.0% [[6]]
- VIP Chip Volume (% chg): Dec-23A: 30.0%, Dec-24A: -10.0%, Dec-25F: 5.0%, Dec-26F: 5.0%, Dec-27F: 5.0% [[6]]
- Mass market drop (% chg): Dec-23A: 29.7%, Dec-24A: 9.8%, Dec-25F: 8.1%, Dec-26F: 10.6%, Dec-27F: 5.8% [[6]]
