Broker: CGS International
Date of Report: April 30, 2025

Singapore Market Outlook April 2025: Key Sector Movers, Stock Performances, and Strategic Insights

Singapore Market Overview: April 2025

The Singapore market experienced a challenging April, with the SIMSCI closing at 388.52 points, down 12.9 points or 3.21% month-on-month. Despite the decline, the index rebounded sharply from a low of 344.58 earlier in the month. CGS International maintains its 2025 MSCI Singapore target at 411.7 points, based on a 15x forward earnings multiple.

Macroeconomic Environment: Growth Slows, Policy Shifts

• 1Q25 GDP growth was 3.8% year-on-year, down from 5% in 4Q24 and underperforming Bloomberg consensus of 4.5%.
• All major sectors grew year-on-year but at a slower pace than the prior quarter.
• The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) surprised markets by reducing the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal exchange rate (S\$NEER) policy band, responding to concerns over a weakening global growth outlook.
• March 2025 Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) rose 5.4% year-on-year (vs. Feb’s 7.2%), missing consensus expectations of 13.6% growth.
• Electronics NODX surged by 11.9% (Feb: 6.9%), while non-electronics moderated to 3.8% (Feb: 7.7%).
• Inflation softened in March: headline at 0.9% year-on-year and core at 0.5%, both below consensus forecasts.

Property Market: Mixed Trends in Residential, Office, and Retail

• Private home prices climbed 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in 1Q25, beating the flash estimate of 0.6%.
• Office rents ended two quarters of decline with a 0.3% increase, but vacancy rates rose to 11.7% from 10.6% as available office stock expanded by 1.05 million sq ft.
• Retail rents fell by 0.5% (previously up 0.6%), with retail vacancy at 6.8% compared to 6.2% in 4Q24.

1Q25 Earnings Season: Sector Winners and Losers

• No major earnings surprises among covered companies; all reported in line with expectations.
• US tariff implementation on April 4 led to risk-off sentiment, especially impacting exporters.
• Sector performance in April:
• Outperformers: Communications, Utilities, and Transport
• Underperformers: Consumer Staples, Financials, and Developers

Top SIMSCI Performers and Laggards

Significant Price Swings Among Mid-to-Large Caps (Market Cap > US\$500m)

Market Flows: Institutional and Retail Activity

• Institutional investors were net sellers, mainly offloading Financials, REITs, and Tech.
• They increased holdings in Telcos.
• Retail investors were net buyers, focusing on Financials, Industrials, and Tech, but sold off Telcos.

Corporate News and Developments

• Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) raised S\$201.3 million via a preferential share offering at S\$2.05 per share.
• Hongkong Land (HKL) is set to sell 147,025 sq ft of One Exchange Square to Hong Kong Exchange for HK\$6.3 billion (S\$1.1 billion) and announced a share buyback program.
• A consortium comprising Hwa Hong, Wing Tai, and the Teo family launched a bid to take AMA private at S\$0.895 per share.

Key Research Takeaways: Sector Preferences and Outlook

• CGS International recommends a defensive positioning in the Singapore market following “Liberation Day”.
• The outlook for Tech manufacturing has been downgraded to Neutral, citing uncertainty in demand despite exemptions for some semiconductors from US tariffs.

Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum Re-emerges

• The MSCI Singapore Index reversed sharply downward on April 4, confirming a triple-top bearish reversal pattern but quickly rebounded from 350.00-point support on April 10.
• Supporting technical signals included an oversold RSI and a bullish Ichimoku crossover.
• The index closed above the 382.00-point resistance-turned-support, signaling a return of upside momentum.
• Short-term (1-month) target: 407.00 points.
• Long-term (6-12 months) target: 417.00 points.
• Key support level to watch: 372.13 points.

Sector Performance Breakdown (as of April 2025)

MSCI Constituents: Comprehensive Performance Review

• Top gainers: Singapore Telecommunications, Singapore Technologies Engineering, Singapore Exchange, Hongkong Land Holdings, Frasers Hospitality Trust.
• Top losers: United Overseas Bank, Wilmar International, DBS Group Holdings, iFAST Corp, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Hong Leong Asia.
• Other notable moves: FHT gained on a business review, FEH remained resilient amid US tariffs. IFAST fell due to disappointing results, MLT declined after halting capital-gains distribution, and HLA underperformed.

Brokerage Disclosure and Ratings Methodology

• CGS International maintains proprietary positions in Capitaland Investment.
• Stock ratings definitions:
• Add: Expected total return >10% over 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return 0-10% over 12 months.
• Reduce: Expected total return <0% over 12 months.
• Sector and country ratings are defined by overweight, neutral, and underweight recommendations relative to market benchmarks.

Conclusion: Defensive Positioning Advised Amid Uncertainty

In summary, Singapore’s equity market faced headwinds in April but demonstrated resilience through a swift technical rebound and select sector outperformance. Amid global macroeconomic uncertainty, CGS International recommends a tilt toward defensive sectors, neutral positioning for tech manufacturing, and close monitoring of key market and company developments. Investors should remain vigilant as volatility persists, with strategic positioning and stock selection remaining crucial for navigating the months ahead.