Broker: UOB Kay Hian
Date of Report: April 30, 2025

Asia-Pacific Market Insights: In-Depth Earnings and Outlook Review for Top Regional Stocks (April 2025)

The latest financial results and strategic updates from leading companies across Greater China, Southeast Asia, and Thailand offer a comprehensive view of the rapidly evolving landscape for investors. This article unpacks first-quarter earnings, sector trends, and strategic developments for major players—ranging from Chinese banks and power utilities to Southeast Asian conglomerates and regional consumer giants.

Key Market Indices & Economic Outlook

Greater China: Banking, Power, and Automation in Focus

China Construction Bank (939 HK): Earnings Miss on Weaker NIM and Fee Income

China Construction Bank (CCB), a leading state-owned bank, posted a disappointing 1Q25 performance with net profit down 4.0%. Key drivers of the miss included net interest margin (NIM) compression and tepid fee income. Trading gains that previously supported revenue growth faded as bond yields rebounded. Asset quality, however, improved, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratio slightly down to 1.33% and provision coverage increasing to 236.8%.

• Net interest income for 2024 was RMB 589.9 billion, projected to decrease to RMB 574.8 billion in 2025.
• Non-interest income is expected to fall to RMB 123.0 billion in 2025, with a net profit forecast of RMB 324.3 billion.
• NIM dropped to 1.41% in 1Q25, down by 16 basis points year-on-year.
• Asset quality pressure is expected to remain manageable, as overseas business contributes less than 8% of revenue and client exposure to global trade is low.
• Dividend yield remains robust at 6.5-7.6% for 2025-2027 forecasts.

The target price was revised downward to HK\$7.00, reflecting lowered earnings assumptions, and the stock was downgraded to HOLD.

China Longyuan Power (916 HK): Stable Results Amid Rising Curtailment Risk

China Longyuan Power reported 1Q25 net profit of RMB 1,977.1 million, a 21.8% year-on-year decline. Wind power generation increased 4.4% to 17,776 GWh, but rising curtailment rates (now 4.4%) and weaker wind resources affected utilization. The absence of coal power contribution after recent disposals also weighed on earnings.

• Photovoltaic power revenue surged 43.1% to RMB 715 million.
• EBIT margin declined to 44.7%, and net margin dropped to 24.3%.
• Net debt to equity is high at 196.1% in 2024, projected to gradually improve.
• Dividend yield expected around 4% in coming years.
• The company faces policy-driven uncertainty as new projects must participate in market-based trading, increasing price volatility and competition.

Target price is maintained at HK\$6.60 with a HOLD rating, citing a solid market position but cautious outlook due to structural headwinds.

China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): Modest Earnings Drop, Resilient NIM

China Merchants Bank (CMB) saw 1Q25 net profit decline by 2.1% year-on-year, mainly due to a 24% drop in non-interest income as bond yields rose and fee income remained weak. On the positive side, net interest margin was resilient, narrowing only 3bps quarter-on-quarter to 1.91%, thanks to better funding cost management and a rebound in the wealth management business.

• Loan growth lagged at 5.2% YoY, below the 7-8% target for 2025.
• Deposit growth was robust at 10.4% YoY, beating guidance.
• Fee income fell 2.5% YoY, but wealth management service fees grew 10.5% YoY.
• Retail asset quality deteriorated slightly, with retail NPL ratio up to 1.01%.
• Provision coverage remains strong at over 410%.
• Dividend yield projected to rise from 4.8% in 2025 to 5.7% by 2027.

CMB maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK\$49.00. Capital strength and resilience in NIM are positives, but slower loan growth and retail asset quality trends warrant caution.

Estun Automation (002747 CH): Recovery Prospects Shadowed by Trade War Risks

Estun Automation delivered an in-line 1Q25, with revenue up 24% YoY, but the prior quarter was disappointing. The company posted a net loss of RMB 744 million in 4Q24 due to weak robot shipments, high operating expenses (OPEX ratio soared to 67%), and a significant goodwill impairment from its Cloos subsidiary.

• 2024 revenue fell to RMB 4,009 million but is expected to recover to RMB 4,627 million in 2025.
• Net profit is projected to return to positive at RMB 63 million in 2025.
• Net margin remains slim at 1.4%-3.8% through 2027.
• Net debt to equity remains elevated at 165.1% in 2025.
• The company faces continued execution risk and trade war uncertainty.

The stock remains a SELL, with a revised target price of RMB 14.50, pegged to a five-year average forward PE.

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH): Strong Revenue Momentum Exceeds Targets

Kweichow Moutai, China’s iconic liquor producer, reported 1Q25 revenue growth surpassing its full-year target. Net profit rose to RMB 26,847 million, up 12% year-on-year, with margins expanding on improved cost control.

• Net turnover for 2024 was RMB 174.1 billion, projected to reach RMB 189.9 billion in 2025.
• Net margin remains above 49% through 2027.
• Dividend yield expected to rise from 3.3% to 4.3% by 2027.
• ROE remains robust at above 36% throughout the forecast period.

Moutai maintains its premium positioning and strong cash generation, with BUY rating and a target price of RMB 1,722.

Midea Group (000333 CH): Earnings Beat and Strategic Spin-Off Plans

Midea Group posted a 1Q25 earnings beat and announced the proposed spin-off of its logistics arm, Annto. The company delivered strong top-line growth and margin expansion.

• Net turnover is expected to grow from RMB 409.1 billion in 2024 to RMB 536.7 billion by 2027.
• Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 38.5 billion in 2024 to RMB 52.5 billion in 2027.
• ROE remains high at approximately 20%.
• Dividend yield is set to rise from 3.3% to 4.3% by 2027.

Midea remains a BUY, targeting RMB 111.90, supported by robust earnings momentum and new strategic initiatives.

Shenzhen Inovance (300124 CH): Sequential Recovery but Trade War Looms

Shenzhen Inovance experienced a meaningful sequential recovery in 1Q25, with demand picking up. However, the company faces potential near-term headwinds from trade war developments.

• 2024 revenue reached RMB 37.0 billion, projected to grow to RMB 56.8 billion by 2027.
• Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 4.3 billion in 2024 to RMB 6.9 billion in 2027.
• Net margin is expected to improve to 11.1% by 2027.
• ROE remains strong, climbing to 16.1% by 2027.

The stock is rated HOLD, with a target price of RMB 67.00, reflecting fair valuation and a balanced risk outlook.

Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline (002472 CH): Solid EV Gear Performance Drives Growth

Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline posted strong 1Q25 results, with net profit up 24.7% YoY to RMB 276 million, outperforming consensus estimates. The company’s core EV gear business remains the main driver.

• 2024 revenue was RMB 8,781 million, forecasted to reach RMB 11,951 million by 2027.
• Net margin is projected to expand to 14.8% by 2026-2027.
• ROE is forecast to rise from 11.9% in 2024 to 14.6% in 2027.
• Dividend yield remains modest under 1%.

The company is expanding into Europe with a new facility expected to generate revenue by 2H25 and reach profitability by 2026-2027. Shuanghuan is rated BUY, with a target price of RMB 41.90.

Indonesia: Transformation and Valuation Gap in Focus

Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ): Billion-Dollar Transformation and Deep Valuation Discount

Barito Pacific is undergoing a large-scale transformation, though its chemical business faces margin pressure from China’s oversupply and fierce global competition. Nonetheless, its TPIA subsidiary’s >90% plant utilization rate supports competitiveness.

• BRPT trades at a steep 90.9% discount to the combined market cap of its subsidiaries.
• 2024 net profit is forecast at US\$56 million, with EBITDA stable at US\$538 million.
• Net margin remains low at 2.4%.
• Net debt to equity is high at 72.5% in 2024.

Barito Pacific is not rated, but the deep discount to underlying asset value and ongoing transformation are key watch points for investors.

Malaysia: Defensive Telco Sector and Energy Recovery

Telecommunications: Defensive Shelter Amid Robust Dividend Yield

The Malaysian telecommunications sector continues to be viewed as a defensive space, with sector dividend yield forecasted at 5% in 2025.

Velesto Energy (VEB MK): Rig Market Stabilizes Despite Weak Quarter

Velesto Energy reported a weak 1Q25 but noted stabilization in the jack-up (JU) rig market, with utilization remaining above 80%. Vietnam emerged as the most active regional market.

• 2025 net profit forecasted at RM97 million, with net margin at 13.5%.
• Net debt to equity is expected to turn negative in 2025, indicating a net cash position.
• ROE projected at 3.9% in 2025.

Velesto is rated BUY with a target price of RM0.22.

Singapore: Strong Results Across Food, Real Estate, and Marine Sectors

Wilmar International (WIL SP): Results In Line, Core Earnings Up

Wilmar International met expectations in 1Q25, with core earnings up 4% YoY on the back of increased contributions from Food Products and Plantations & Sugar Milling.

• 2025 net turnover projected at US\$79 billion, net profit at US\$1.52 billion.
• Dividend yield expected to remain high at 4.7%-5.8% through 2027.
• Net margin expected to gradually rise to 2.1% by 2027.

Wilmar retains a BUY rating, with a target price of S\$3.45.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP): Heartbeat of the Heartland

Frasers Centrepoint Trust saw stable occupancy at 99.5% for its retail malls in 2QFY25. Shopper traffic and tenant sales continued to grow, supported by asset enhancements.

• 2025 DPU (Distribution per Unit) forecast at 12.0 S cents, with yield of 5.3%.
• Aggregate leverage stands at 38.9%.
• Net profit projected to rise steadily to S\$247 million by 2027.

The trust maintains a BUY rating with a target price of S\$2.73, underpinned by robust suburban consumption and asset enhancements.

Marco Polo Marine (MPM SP): Ushering in a New Chapter

Marco Polo Marine continues to deliver strong margin performance, with net margin rising to over 20% by 2027. Net profit is expected to grow from S\$29 million in 2026 to S\$36 million in 2027.

• PE ratio contracts from 5.5x in 2026 to 4.4x in 2027.
• Dividend yield rises to 4.8% from 2026 onwards.
• Net debt to equity turns increasingly negative, moving to (54.3)% in 2027.

Marco Polo Marine is rated BUY with a target price of S\$0.072.

Thailand: Consumer, Energy, and Packaging Updates

Home Product Center (HMPRO TB): Flattish Earnings, ESG Initiatives

Home Product Center posted flattish 1Q25 earnings momentum. The company is focused on achieving net zero emissions by 2050 and increasing renewable energy usage and waste management. EBITDA margin is stable around 13-14%.

• 2025 net profit forecast at Bt6,698 million, with net margin at 9.3%.
• ROE remains high at 24.4% in 2025.
• Debt to equity ratio gradually improves.

HMPRO is rated HOLD, with a target price of Bt10.00.

Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB): Soft 1Q25 Expected, Positive Long-Term Outlook

Bangchak Corporation, now Thailand’s largest refinery following the ESSO acquisition, is preparing to delist its BSRC unit and restructure by the end of 2025. The launch of its sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facility was postponed to 3Q25. The company targets carbon neutrality by 2030 and net zero by 2050.

• 2025 net profit forecast at Bt7,016 million, with EBITDA at Bt43,415 million.
• Dividend yield projected at 4.0% in 2025.
• Net debt to equity forecast to improve to 71.1% by 2027.

BCP is rated BUY, with a target price of Bt45.00, offering attractive valuations and a strong long-term growth platform.

Bangchak Sriracha (BSRC TB): Slim Profits, Delisting Underway

BSRC’s 1Q25 preview points to slim core and net profits, with EBITDA forecast at Bt7,612 million for 2025. The company is preparing for delisting as part of BCP’s restructuring, offering investors a more favorable swap ratio by buying into BSRC.

• 2025 net margin forecast at 1.1%.
• ROE projected to recover to 10.5% in 2025 and 13.1% in 2026.

BSRC is rated BUY, with a target price of Bt7.00.

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB): Recovery Expected in 2Q25

SCG Packaging anticipates continued net profit recovery in 2Q25, with EBITDA projected to rise from Bt17,290 million in 2025 to Bt18,733 million in 2027.

• Net profit is forecast at Bt3,534 million in 2025, growing to Bt5,226 million by 2027.
• Net margin to improve from 2.79% in 2025 to 3.05% in 2027.
• Dividend yield to rise to 3.33% by 2027.

SCGP is rated HOLD, with a target price of Bt13.20.

Conclusion: Diverse Sector Trends, Focused Execution and Policy Risks

The first quarter of 2025 reveals a regional market in transition—China’s financial sector faces margin and fee pressure, renewable energy players balance growth with rising curtailment and policy volatility, and Southeast Asian companies pursue transformative strategies. Meanwhile, defensive plays in telco and consumer sectors, along with robust dividend yields, offer downside protection amid global uncertainty. Investors should remain alert to shifting policy landscapes, execution risks, and evolving sector dynamics as the year unfolds.