Broker: UOB Kay Hian
Date of Report: 30 April 2025
Kweichow Moutai 2025 Q1 Results: Revenue Surges Past Targets, Series Liquor Shines
Kweichow Moutai 1Q25 Results: Revenue Surges Past Targets, Series Liquor Shines
Overview: Kweichow Moutai Delivers Strong Q1 2025 Revenue Growth
Kweichow Moutai, China’s iconic liquor producer and one of the world’s three most famous distilled spirits brands, has reported robust financial results for the first quarter of 2025. The company’s revenue and profit growth have outpaced annual targets, underpinned by exceptional performance across both its core Moutai and non-Moutai series liquors. UOB Kay Hian has maintained a BUY rating, with a target price of RMB1,722, implying an 11.5% upside from the current share price of RMB1,544.
Stock Snapshot and Key Information
- Ticker: 600519 CH
- Sector: Consumer Staples
- Market Cap: RMB 1,939.6 billion (USD 266.9 billion)
- Shares Issued: 1,256.2 million
- 52-week High/Low: RMB 1,910.00 / RMB 1,245.83
- Major Shareholders:
- Kweichow Moutai Group: 54.07%
- Guizhou Province State-owned Capital Operation Co., Ltd.: 4.54%
- FY25 NAV/Share: RMB 206.69
- FY25 Net Cash/Share: RMB 161.73
Q1 2025 Financial Performance: Outperforming Expectations
- Total Revenue: RMB 51,443 million (+10.7% YoY, +0.8% QoQ)
- Operating Revenue: RMB 50,601 million (+10.5% YoY, +1.0% QoQ)
- Operational Gross Profit: RMB 46,540 million (+9.8% YoY)
- Operational Gross Profit Margin: 92.0% (down 0.6ppt YoY, down 0.9ppt QoQ)
- EBIT: RMB 36,728 million (+12.5% YoY, +3.8% QoQ)
- EBIT Margin: 71.4% (up 1.1ppt YoY, up 2.0ppt QoQ)
- Attributable Net Profit: RMB 26,847 million (+11.6% YoY, +5.7% QoQ)
- Net Margin: 52.2% (up 0.4ppt YoY, up 2.4ppt QoQ)
- Core Attributable Net Profit: RMB 26,850 million (+11.6% YoY, +5.4% QoQ)
Table: Q1 2025 Results Summary
| Metric |
1Q25 |
4Q24 |
1Q24 |
YoY Change (%) |
QoQ Change (%) |
| Total Revenue (RMB mn) |
51,443 |
51,022 |
46,485 |
+10.7 |
+0.8 |
| Operating Revenue (RMB mn) |
50,601 |
50,123 |
45,776 |
+10.5 |
+1.0 |
| Operational Gross Profit (RMB mn) |
46,540 |
46,562 |
42,394 |
+9.8 |
(0.0) |
| Operational Gross Profit Margin (%) |
92.0 |
92.9 |
92.6 |
-0.6ppt |
-0.9ppt |
| EBIT (RMB mn) |
36,728 |
35,383 |
32,654 |
+12.5 |
+3.8 |
| EBIT Margin (%) |
71.4 |
69.3 |
70.2 |
+1.1ppt |
+2.0ppt |
| Attributable Net Profit (RMB mn) |
26,847 |
25,401 |
24,065 |
+11.6 |
+5.7 |
| Attributable Profit Margin (%) |
52.2 |
49.8 |
51.8 |
+0.4ppt |
+2.4ppt |
| Core Attributable Net Profit (RMB mn) |
26,850 |
25,462 |
24,051 |
+11.6 |
+5.4 |
| Core Attributable Profit Margin (%) |
52.2 |
49.9 |
51.7 |
+0.5ppt |
+2.3ppt |
Key Operational Data: Product, Channel, and Regional Performance
- Moutai Liquor Revenue: RMB 43,557 million (+9.7% YoY, -2.8% QoQ)
- Non-Moutai (Series) Liquor Revenue: RMB 7,022 million (+18.3% YoY, +32.7% QoQ)
- Direct Sales Channel: RMB 23,220 million (+20.2% YoY, +1.6% QoQ); 46% of liquor revenue
- Wholesale Channel: RMB 27,360 million (+3.9% YoY, +0.4% QoQ)
- Domestic Revenue: RMB 49,461 million (+10.3% YoY, +2.2% QoQ)
- Overseas Revenue: RMB 1,119 million (+37.5% YoY, -34.4% QoQ)
Table: Liquor Revenue by Product, Channel, and Region (Q1 2025)
| Category |
1Q25 (RMB mn) |
4Q24 (RMB mn) |
1Q24 (RMB mn) |
YoY Change (%) |
QoQ Change (%) |
| Moutai Liquor |
43,557 |
44,802 |
39,707 |
+9.7 |
-2.8 |
| Non-Moutai Liquor |
7,022 |
5,291 |
5,936 |
+18.3 |
+32.7 |
| Direct Sales Channel |
23,220 |
22,854 |
19,319 |
+20.2 |
+1.6 |
| Wholesale Channel |
27,360 |
27,239 |
26,324 |
+3.9 |
+0.4 |
| Domestic Revenue |
49,461 |
48,387 |
44,830 |
+10.3 |
+2.2 |
| Overseas Revenue |
1,119 |
1,706 |
813 |
+37.5 |
-34.4 |
Sales Channel Highlights and Contract Liabilities
- The i-Moutai app contributed RMB 5,870 million to direct sales in Q1 2025, up 10% YoY and comprising 25% of direct sales (vs. 23% in Q4 2024 and 28% in Q1 2024).
- Contract liabilities stood at RMB 8,788 million at the end of Q1 2025, marking an 8% decrease both YoY and QoQ.
- Cash inflow from sales and services reached RMB 56.1 billion (+21% YoY, +6% QoQ).
- Kweichow Moutai increased its domestic wholesaler count by 31 QoQ, reaching 2,174 by the end of Q1 2025.
Valuation and Recommendation
- Rating: BUY (maintained)
- Target Price: RMB 1,722 (DCF-based, unchanged)
- Implied Valuation: 23.0x 2025F PE and 21.2x 2026F PE
- Current Valuation: 20.7x 2025F PE and 19.0x 2026F PE
Key Financial Forecasts and Ratios (2023-2027F)
| Year |
2023 |
2024 |
2025F |
2026F |
2027F |
| Net Turnover (RMB mn) |
150,560 |
174,144 |
189,972 |
206,348 |
223,709 |
| EBITDA (RMB mn) |
103,747 |
120,235 |
130,892 |
142,191 |
153,890 |
| Operating Profit (RMB mn) |
101,810 |
118,150 |
128,816 |
140,030 |
151,645 |
| Net Profit (RMB mn) |
74,734 |
86,228 |
93,860 |
102,230 |
110,793 |
| EPS (Fen) |
5,949.2 |
6,864.2 |
7,471.7 |
8,138.1 |
8,819.7 |
| PE (x) |
26.0 |
22.5 |
20.7 |
19.0 |
17.5 |
| P/B (x) |
9.0 |
8.3 |
7.5 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) |
17.5 |
14.9 |
13.4 |
12.1 |
11.0 |
| Dividend Yield (%) |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
| Net Margin (%) |
49.6 |
49.5 |
49.4 |
49.5 |
49.5 |
| Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity (%) |
(81.5) |
(80.1) |
(91.6) |
(93.4) |
(94.5) |
| ROE (%) |
36.2 |
38.4 |
38.1 |
37.3 |
36.4 |
Profitability, Growth, and Cash Flow Analysis
- EBITDA margin remains robust at around 69% from 2024 through 2027F.
- Net margin steady, holding near 49.5% throughout forecast period.
- ROE remains high at 38.4% in 2024, gradually declining to 36.4% by 2027F.
- Net cash position strengthens, with Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity improving to (94.5)% by 2027F.
- Dividend payouts are anticipated to rise in tandem with earnings, supporting a growing yield.
Conclusion: Kweichow Moutai’s Strong Fundamentals and Attractive Valuation
Kweichow Moutai has delivered an outstanding Q1 2025, with revenue and profitability tracking ahead of annual guidance. The company’s core Moutai liquor and fast-growing series products, coupled with an expanding direct sales presence (notably via the i-Moutai app), drive robust cash flows and profit margins. Contract liabilities have eased, and the balance sheet remains strong, with ample net cash and high returns on equity.
UOB Kay Hian maintains a BUY recommendation, seeing further upside as the company sustains growth momentum and delivers superior shareholder returns through both capital appreciation and dividends. At current valuations, Kweichow Moutai remains a compelling core holding for investors seeking exposure to China’s premium consumer sector.
