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Singapore CPI Moderates; MAS to Remain Dovish – Economic Analysis & Forecasts

Posted on April 28, 2025 at 9:06 am (GMT+8)

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CGS International

April 23, 2025

Singapore’s CPI Moderates: Will MAS Ease Policy Further?

Key Takeaways

  • Singapore’s headline and core inflation moderated in March 2025. [[1]]
  • Headline inflation remained at 0.9% year-over-year (yoy). [[1]]
  • Core inflation softened to 0.5% yoy. [[1]]
  • Private transport costs remained elevated due to rising Certificate of Entitlement (COE) premiums. [[1]]
  • The 2025 CPI forecast is maintained at 2.0% yoy. [[1]]
  • Anticipation of further policy easing by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). [[1]]

Inflation Eases in March 2025

In March 2025, Singapore’s headline inflation remained steady at 0.9% yoy, matching the previous month. Core inflation decreased to 0.5% yoy, from 0.6% in February 2025. Both figures were below Bloomberg consensus estimates, which predicted 1.1% for headline and 0.7% for core inflation. The moderation in core inflation was widespread across all major Consumer Price Index (CPI) components, except for food prices. [[1]]

Despite declines in core and accommodation inflation, headline inflation was stable, supported by an increase in private transport inflation. [[1]]

Private Transport Costs Persistently High

Private transport inflation rose to 2.1% yoy in March 2025, up from 1.6% yoy in February 2025, driven by higher car prices due to increased COE premiums. Strong demand and limited COE supply have kept premiums high, sustaining inflationary pressures. Although an increase in COE supply may reduce some cost pressures, private transport inflation is expected to remain high. [[2]]

Structural demand factors, COE premium volatility, and potential delays in passing cost reductions to consumers may contribute to sustained inflation. [[2]]

Food Inflation on the Rise

Food inflation increased to 1.3% yoy in March 2025 from 1.0% in February 2025, driven by higher costs for noncooked food and prepared meals due to rising import costs. [[2]]

MAS Policy Easing Anticipated

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has revised its core inflation forecast for 2025 to a range of 0.5% to 1.5% yoy, down from the previous projection of 1.0% to 2.0%. Imported inflation is expected to remain moderate in 2025, supported by subdued global demand and ample supply conditions. Global crude oil prices are anticipated to be lower than in 2024. [[3]]

Rising trade tensions may be inflationary for some economies, but their impact on Singapore’s import prices is expected to be outweighed by global disinflationary pressures. Reflecting on MAS’s recent policy decision to reduce the rate of appreciation of the S\$NEER, at least one further adjustment this year is anticipated. [[3]]

Lingering uncertainty over Trump-era tariff policies could still pose upside risks. The 2025 CPI forecast is maintained at 2.0% yoy. [[3]]

Singapore CPI Forecasts

Actual vs. Consensus:

  • Headline CPI (Mar-25): Actual 0.9%, CGSI 1.3%, Consensus 1.1% [[4]]
  • Core CPI (Mar-25): Actual 0.5%, Consensus 0.7% [[4]]

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Breakdown

Here’s a detailed look at the CPI components:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): Weight 100.0%, Jan 25: 1.2%, Feb 25: 0.9%, Mar 25: 0.9%, 3M25: 1.0%, Jan 25 (mom sa): 0.0%, Feb 25 (mom sa): 0.1%, Mar 25 (mom sa): -0.2% [[4], [5]]
  • MAS Core Inflation: Jan 25: 0.8%, Feb 25: 0.6%, Mar 25: 0.5%, 3M25: 0.6% [[4], [5]]
  • Food: Weight 20.4%, Jan 25: 1.5%, Feb 25: 1.0%, Mar 25: 1.3%, 3M25: 1.3%, Jan 25 (mom sa): -0.5%, Feb 25 (mom sa): 0.3%, Mar 25 (mom sa): -0.1% [[4], [5]]
  • Clothing & Footwear: Weight 1.7%, Jan 25: -2.3%, Feb 25: -0.9%, Mar 25: 0.0%, 3M25: -1.0%, Jan 25 (mom sa): -0.1%, Feb 25 (mom sa): 1.1%, Mar 25 (mom sa): 0.1% [[4], [5]]
  • Housing & Utilities: Weight 29.4%, Jan 25: 1.4%, Feb 25: 1.4%, Mar 25: 1.2%, 3M25: 1.3%, Jan 25 (mom sa): 0.2%, Feb 25 (mom sa): -0.3%, Mar 25 (mom sa): 0.2% [[4], [5]]
  • Household Durables & Services: Weight 5.5%, Jan 25: -0.5%, Feb 25: -0.3%, Mar 25: -0.5%, 3M25: -0.4%, Jan 25 (mom sa): 0.0%, Feb 25 (mom sa): 0.4%, Mar 25 (mom sa): -0.4% [[4], [5]]
  • Health Care: Weight 10.1%, Jan 25: 1.5%, Feb 25: 1.8%, Mar 25: 1.8%, 3M25: 1.7%, Jan 25 (mom sa): -0.4%, Feb 25 (mom sa): 0.1%, Mar 25 (mom sa): 0.3% [[4], [5]]
  • Transport: Weight 13.1%, Jan 25: 3.1%, Feb 25: 1.8%, Mar 25: 1.9%, 3M25: 2.3%, Jan 25 (mom sa): 1.5%, Feb 25 (mom sa): -0.8%, Mar 25 (mom sa): -0.2% [[4], [5]]
  • Communication: Weight 3.8%, Jan 25: -0.2%, Feb 25: -0.5%, Mar 25: -1.9%, 3M25: -0.9%, Jan 25 (mom sa): -0.2%, Feb 25 (mom sa): -0.2%, Mar 25 (mom sa): -1.8% [[4], [5]]
  • Recreation & Culture: Weight 6.0%, Jan 25: -0.7%, Feb 25: -1.1%, Mar 25: -0.9%, 3M25: -0.9%, Jan 25 (mom sa): -2.3%, Feb 25 (mom sa): 0.7%, Mar 25 (mom sa): 0.2% [[5]]
  • Education: Weight 5.8%, Jan 25: 0.1%, Feb 25: 0.4%, Mar 25: 0.4%, 3M25: 0.3%, Jan 25 (mom sa): -0.8%, Feb 25 (mom sa): 0.2%, Mar 25 (mom sa): 0.2% [[5]]
  • Miscellaneous Goods & Services: Weight 4.4%, Jan 25: 0.2%, Feb 25: -0.5%, Mar 25: -0.4%, 3M25: -0.2%, Jan 25 (mom sa): -0.2%, Feb 25 (mom sa): -0.3%, Mar 25 (mom sa): -0.4% [[5]]
  • CPI Less Imputed Rentals on OOA: Weight 78.6%, Jan 25: 1.1%, Feb 25: 0.8%, Mar 25: 0.8%, 3M25: 0.9%, Jan 25 (mom sa): 0.0%, Feb 25 (mom sa): 0.0%, Mar 25 (mom sa): -0.1% [[5]]
  • CPI Less Accommodation: Weight 73.4%, Jan 25: 1.0%, Feb 25: 0.7%, Mar 25: 0.7%, 3M25: 0.8%, Jan 25 (mom sa): -0.2%, Feb 25 (mom sa): 0.2%, Mar 25 (mom sa): -0.1% [[5]]

Singapore’s Producer Price Index (PPI)

Singapore’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and supply prices softened slightly in line with the easing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). [[2]]

CGSI’s Key Macro Forecasts

Key macroeconomic forecasts for various countries, including real GDP growth and inflation rates. [[2]]

  • Real GDP (% yoy)
    • Malaysia: 2018: 4.8, 2019: 4.4, 2020: -5.5, 2021: 3.3, 2022: 8.9, 2023: 3.6, 2024: 5.1, 2025F: 4.2, 2026F: 5.0 [[2]]
    • Indonesia: 2018: 5.2, 2019: 5.0, 2020: -2.1, 2021: 3.7, 2022: 5.3, 2023: 5.1, 2024: 5.0, 2025F: 5.0, 2026F: 5.1 [[2]]
    • Singapore: 2018: 3.7, 2019: 1.1, 2020: -4.1, 2021: 7.6, 2022: 3.6, 2023: 1.1, 2024: 5.0, 2025F: 1.6, 2026F: 1.8 [[2]]
    • Thailand: 2018: 4.2, 2019: 2.2, 2020: -6.2, 2021: 1.6, 2022: 2.6, 2023: 1.9, 2024: 2.5, 2025F: 1.8, 2026F: 2.9 [[2]]
  • Headline inflation, average (% yoy)
    • Malaysia: 2018: 1.0, 2019: 0.7, 2020: -1.1, 2021: 2.5, 2022: 3.4, 2023: 2.5, 2024: 1.8, 2025F: 2.3, 2026F: 2.2 [[2]]
    • Indonesia: 2018: 3.2, 2019: 2.8, 2020: 2.0, 2021: 1.6, 2022: 4.2, 2023: 3.7, 2024: 2.3, 2025F: 2.1, 2026F: 2.8 [[2]]
    • Singapore: 2018: 0.4, 2019: 0.6, 2020: -0.2, 2021: 2.3, 2022: 6.1, 2023: 4.8, 2024: 2.4, 2025F: 2.0, 2026F: 1.3 [[2]]
    • Thailand: 2018: 1.1, 2019: 0.7, 2020: -0.8, 2021: 1.2, 2022: 6.1, 2023: 1.3, 2024: 0.4, 2025F: 0.5, 2026F: 1.0 [[2]]
  • Headline inflation, end-period (% yoy)
    • Malaysia: 2018: 0.2, 2019: 1.0, 2020: -1.4, 2021: 3.2, 2022: 3.8, 2023: 1.5, 2024: 1.7, 2025F: 2.8, 2026F: 2.1 [[2]]
    • Indonesia: 2018: 3.1, 2019: 2.6, 2020: 1.7, 2021: 1.9, 2022: 5.5, 2023: 2.8, 2024: 1.6, 2025F: 2.7, 2026F: 2.9 [[2]]
    • Singapore: 2018: 0.5, 2019: 0.8, 2020: 0.0, 2021: 4.0, 2022: 6.5, 2023: 3.7, 2024: 1.8, 2025F: 1.7, 2026F: 0.7 [[2]]
    • Thailand: 2018: 0.4, 2019: 0.9, 2020: -0.3, 2021: 2.2, 2022: 5.9, 2023: -0.8, 2024: 1.2, 2025F: 0.7, 2026F: 1.0 [[2]]
  • Unemployment rate, end-period (%)
    • Malaysia: 2018: 3.3, 2019: 3.3, 2020: 4.8, 2021: 4.3, 2022: 3.7, 2023: 3.4, 2024: 3.1, 2025F: 3.1, 2026F: 3.1 [[2]]
    • Indonesia: 2018: 5.2, 2019: 5.2, 2020: 7.1, 2021: 6.5, 2022: 5.9, 2023: 5.3, 2024: 4.9, 2025F: 4.7, 2026F: 4.5 [[2]]
    • Singapore: 2018: 1.9, 2019: 2.0, 2020: 2.8, 2021: 2.1, 2022: 1.8, 2023: 1.8, 2024: 1.7, 2025F: 2.0, 2026F: 2.1 [[2]]
    • Thailand: 2018: 0.9, 2019: 1.0, 2020: 1.5, 2021: 1.9, 2022: 1.3, 2023: 1.0, 2024: 1.0, 2025F: 1.0, 2026F: 1.0 [[2]]
  • Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
    • Malaysia: 2018: -3.7, 2019: -3.4, 2020: -6.2, 2021: -6.4, 2022: -5.6, 2023: -5.0, 2024: -4.1, 2025F: -3.8, 2026F: -3.4 [[2]]
    • Indonesia: 2018: -1.8, 2019: -2.2, 2020: -6.1, 2021: -4.6, 2022: -2.4, 2023: -1.7, 2024: -2.2, 2025F: -2.5, 2026F: -2.7 [[2]]
    • Singapore: 2018: 0.7, 2019: 0.2, 2020: -10.8, 2021: 0.3, 2022: 0.3, 2023: -0.5, 2024: 0.9, 2025F: 0.0, 2026F: 0.2 [[2]]
    • Thailand: 2018: -3.0, 2019: -3.0, 2020: -5.2, 2021: -4.8, 2022: -3.5, 2023: -3.6, 2024: -3.8, 2025F: -4.0, 2026F: -3.5 [[2]]
  • Current account balance (% of GDP)
    • Malaysia: 2018: 2.2, 2019: 3.5, 2020: 4.2, 2021: 3.9, 2022: 3.1, 2023: 1.5, 2024: 1.7, 2025F: 1.5, 2026F: 1.4 [[2]]
    • Indonesia: 2018: -2.9, 2019: -2.7, 2020: -0.4, 2021: 0.3, 2022: 1.0, 2023: -0.1, 2024: -0.6, 2025F: -1.0, 2026F: -1.2 [[2]]
    • Singapore: 2018: 15.2, 2019: 14.5, 2020: 16.6, 2021: 19.8, 2022: 18.0, 2023: 17.7, 2024: 17.5, 2025F: 16.3, 2026F: 14.2 [[2]]
    • Thailand: 2018: 5.6, 2019: 7.0, 2020: 4.2, 2021: -2.1, 2022: -3.5, 2023: 1.5, 2024: 2.1, 2025F: 2.0, 2026F: 2.0 [[2]]
  • International reserves (US\$ bn)
    • Malaysia: 2018: 101.4, 2019: 104.0, 2020: 108.2, 2021: 116.9, 2022: 114.7, 2023: 113.5, 2024: 116.2, 2025F: 114.3, 2026F: 113.8 [[2]]
    • Indonesia: 2018: 120.7, 2019: 129.2, 2020: 135.9, 2021: 144.9, 2022: 137.2, 2023: 146.4, 2024: 155.7, 2025F: 154.7, 2026F: 160.7 [[2]]
    • Singapore: 2018: 287.7, 2019: 279.5, 2020: 362.3, 2021: 417.9, 2022: 287.5, 2023: 347.6, 2024: 371.4, 2025F: 380.0, 2026F: 390.0 [[2]]
    • Thailand: 2018: 205.6, 2019: 224.3, 2020: 258.1, 2021: 246.0, 2022: 216.6, 2023: 220.0, 2024: 210.9, 2025F: 205.0, 2026F: 200.0 [[2]]
  • Policy rate, end-period (%)
    • Malaysia: 2018: 3.25, 2019: 3.00, 2020: 1.75, 2021: 1.75, 2022: 2.75, 2023: 3.00, 2024: 3.00, 2025F: 2.75, 2026F: 2.75 [[2]]
    • Indonesia: 2018: 6.00, 2019: 5.00, 2020: 3.75, 2021: 3.50, 2022: 5.50, 2023: 6.00, 2024: 6.00, 2025F: 5.00, 2026F: 4.50 [[2]]
    • Thailand: 2018: 1.75, 2019: 1.25, 2020: 0.50, 2021: 0.50, 2022: 1.25, 2023: 2.50, 2024: 2.25, 2025F: 1.25, 2026F: 1.00 [[2]]
  • Currency, end-period (per US\$)
    • Ringgit, MYR: 2018: 4.13, 2019: 4.09, 2020: 4.02, 2021: 4.17, 2022: 4.40, 2023: 4.59, 2024: 4.47, 2025F: 4.30, 2026F: 4.30 [[2]]
    • Rupiah, IDR: 2018: 14,481, 2019: 13,901, 2020: 14,105, 2021: 14,278, 2022: 15,592, 2023: 15,439, 2024: 16,162, 2025F: 15,750, 2026F: 15,200 [[2]]
    • Singdollar, SGD: 2018: 1.36, 2019: 1.35, 2020: 1.32, 2021: 1.35, 2022: 1.34, 2023: 1.32, 2024: 1.36, 2025F: 1.35, 2026F: 1.31 [[2]]
    • Thai baht, THB: 2018: 32.55, 2019: 29.97, 2020: 29.95, 2021: 33.41, 2022: 34.77, 2023: 34.14, 2024: 34.09, 2025F: 34.25, 2026F: 34.00 [[2]]

*Monetary policy in Singapore is centred on the exchange rate, rather than interest rate. [[2]]

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