CGS International
April 24, 2025
Mapletree Logistics Trust: Portfolio Diversity Drives Reversion Resilience
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) demonstrates resilience through its diversified portfolio, achieving stable performance amidst market challenges. This analysis delves into MLT’s recent financial results, portfolio metrics, and strategic initiatives, providing insights for investors and stakeholders.
FY25 Performance Overview
- DPU Performance: MLT’s 4QFY25 and FY3/25 distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.955 and 8.053 Singapore cents, respectively, aligned with forecasts, achieving 24.4% and 100.6% of FY25F expectations [[1]].
- Portfolio Take-Up: The portfolio achieved a 96.2% take-up rate in 4QFY25, with a +5.1% reversion [[1]].
Detailed Results Analysis
MLT reported a slight year-over-year (YoY) revenue decrease of 0.8% in 4QFY25, totaling S\$179.6 million. Net property income (NPI) also experienced a 1.6% YoY decline, falling to S\$152.8 million. This was attributed to reduced contributions from China, the absence of income from divested properties, and unfavorable foreign exchange rates. These factors were partially offset by increased contributions from Singapore, Australia, and Hong Kong, China [[1]].
Distribution income for the quarter amounted to S\$99.1 million, translating to a DPU of 1.955 Singapore cents, a 10.3% YoY decrease. This decline reflects higher borrowing costs and reduced distribution of divestment gains. Year-end valuations revealed net fair value losses in properties located in China, South Korea, and Singapore, balanced by gains in other markets [[1]].
Portfolio Metrics and Leasing Dynamics
- Occupancy Rates: Portfolio occupancy slightly decreased by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in 4QFY25, settling at 96.2%. This was influenced by lower take-up rates in Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia [[1]].
- Redevelopment Progress: The redevelopment of 5A Joo Koon Circle has secured a pre-commitment rate of 46%, up from 11% in 3QFY25, with an additional 30% under active negotiation. The project is on track for completion in May 2025 [[1]].
- Rental Reversion: MLT achieved an overall rental reversion of +5.1% in 4QFY25 (+6.9% excluding China). Positive reversions ranged from 1.3% in Hong Kong SAR to 15.7% in Japan. China experienced negative rental reversion of -9.4%, although the rate of decline slowed QoQ [[1]].
- Lease Expiry Profile: Approximately 32.3% and 21.9% of leases are due for renewal in FY26F and FY27F, respectively. A significant 50% of FY26F lease expirations are in China, potentially impacting overall portfolio rental reversion due to prevailing negative trends [[1]].
Capital Management and Financial Stability
- Gearing and Interest Costs: MLT’s gearing ratio increased to 40.7% by the end of 4QFY25. Interest costs remained stable QoQ at 2.7%. Approximately 81% of debt is hedged into fixed rates, and 75% of distributable income is hedged into Singapore dollars (S\$) for the next 12 months [[1]].
- Strategic Financial Flexibility: MLT intends to retain divestment gains to enhance financial flexibility, given current market uncertainties. Approximately 85% of its revenue comes from tenants serving domestic consumption, providing portfolio stability, with only 15% engaged in export business [[1]].
Investment Recommendation
The FY26-27F DPU estimates have been adjusted downward by 1.09-1.98% to reflect a more conservative growth outlook. Consequently, the DDM-based target price (TP) has been lowered to S\$1.63, with a cost of equity of 7.83% [[1]].
The “Add” rating is maintained, supported by an anticipated FY26F DPU yield of 6.4%, which adequately factors in the expected slower growth. Potential catalysts for a re-rating include sustained leasing momentum with positive rental renewals and increased asset recycling activities. Downside risks include a softening macroeconomic outlook, impacting rental growth and portfolio values, and adverse rental reversion trends [[1]].
Key Figures and Tables
Figure 1: Results Comparison [[2]]
| FYE Mar (S\$ m) |
4Q |
4Q |
yoy % |
qoq % |
FY25 |
FY24 |
yoy % |
Our FY25F |
Comments |
| Revenue |
179.6 |
181.0 |
(0.8) |
(1.5) |
727.0 |
733.9 |
(0.9) |
736.7 |
In line. 4Q/FY3/25: 24.4%/98.7% of our FY25F forecast |
| Property operating expenses |
(26.8) |
(25.7) |
4.5 |
6.3 |
(101.7) |
(98.9) |
2.8 |
(98.8) |
|
| NPI |
152.8 |
155.3 |
(1.6) |
(2.8) |
625.3 |
634.9 |
(1.5) |
637.8 |
In line. 4Q/FY3/25: 24%/98% of our FY25F forecast |
| NPI margin (%) |
|
|
85.1 |
85.8 |
|
|
86.0 |
86.5 |
86.6 |
| Interest expense |
(38.7) |
(37.2) |
4.0 |
(3.1) |
(156.9) |
(145.9) |
7.5 |
(154.8) |
|
| Interest & invt inc |
0.6 |
0.7 |
(18.0) |
(17.4) |
2.6 |
2.9 |
(9.8) |
2.3 |
|
| Manager & trustee fees |
(22.8) |
(23.0) |
(1.0) |
(2.2) |
(92.3) |
(93.0) |
(0.7) |
(92.8) |
|
| Other trust expenses |
(5.0) |
(9.5) |
(47.7) |
35.9 |
(10.9) |
(28.0) |
(61.0) |
(5.0) |
|
| Exceptionals & revaln |
(102.1) |
(9.4) |
991.7 |
(761.1) |
(94.0) |
22.2 |
(524.3) |
29.0 |
|
| Pretax profit |
(15.2) |
77.0 |
(119.7) |
(114.2) |
273.8 |
393.1 |
(30.4) |
416.4 |
|
| Tax |
|
|
(9.9) |
(11.9) |
|
|
(16.7) |
(45.6) |
(64.9) |
| Tax rate (%) |
|
|
(65.2) |
15.4 |
|
|
23.7 |
16.1 |
10.4 |
| Minority interests |
(0.9) |
(1.3) |
(29.7) |
341.3 |
(1.1) |
(2.6) |
(55.9) |
(2.6) |
|
| Perpetual securities |
(5.6) |
(6.1) |
(7.7) |
(2.2) |
(24.2) |
(24.3) |
(0.4) |
(24.3) |
|
| Net profit |
(31.5) |
57.8 |
(154.6) |
(138.3) |
183.5 |
303.1 |
(39.5) |
346.2 |
|
| Distr profit |
99.1 |
110.4 |
(10.3) |
(2.2) |
406.4 |
447.1 |
(9.1) |
401.2 |
In line. 4Q/FY3/25: 24.7%/101.3% of our FY25F forecast |
| DPU (S cts) |
1.955 |
2.211 |
(11.6) |
(2.4) |
8.053 |
9.003 |
(10.6) |
8.01 |
In line. 4Q/FY3/25: 24.4%/100.6% of our FY25F forecast |
Figure 2: Key Earnings Revisions [[2]]
| FYE Mar (S\$m) |
FY26F Previous |
FY27F New |
FY26F FY27F |
FY26F FY27F |
% chg |
| Gross revenue |
745.2 |
749.6 |
738.8 |
742.4 |
-0.86% -0.96% |
| Distribution income |
382.0 |
383.1 |
380.3 |
380.7 |
-0.45% -0.62% |
| DPU (Scts) |
7.56 |
7.57 |
7.48 |
7.423 |
-1.09% -1.98% |
Peer Comparison
Figure 3: SREIT Peer Comparison [[2]]
| Sector |
Price (LC) as at 24 Apr 25 |
Target Price (LC) |
Mkt Cap (US \$m) |
Last reported asset leverage |
Last stated NAV |
Price / NAV |
Dividend Yield (%) FY25F |
Dividend Yield (%) FY26F |
Dividend Yield (%) FY27F |
| Hospitality |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CapitaLand Ascott Trust CLAS SP Add |
0.84 |
1.13 |
\$2,440 |
38.3% |
1.15 |
0.73 |
7.3% |
7.5% |
7.6% |
| CDL Hospitality Trust CDREIT SP Add |
0.80 |
1.07 |
\$771 |
38.8% |
1.48 |
0.54 |
7.3% |
7.9% |
8.1% |
| Far East Hospitality Trust FEHT SP Add |
0.56 |
0.75 |
\$853 |
30.8% |
0.92 |
0.60 |
7.3% |
7.1% |
7.1% |
| Frasers Hospitality Trust FHT SP NR |
0.61 |
NA |
\$773 |
35.0% |
0.64 |
0.95 |
4.1% |
4.4% |
4.8% |
| Simple Average |
|
|
|
35.7% |
|
0.70 |
6.5% |
6.7% |
6.9% |
| Industrial |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| AIMS AMP AAREIT SP NR |
1.25 |
NA |
\$754 |
33.7% |
1.26 |
0.99 |
7.4% |
7.3% |
7.5% |
| CapitaLand Ascendas REIT CLAR SP Add |
2.66 |
3.10 |
\$8,922 |
37.7% |
2.20 |
1.21 |
5.8% |
6.0% |
6.1% |
| ESR-REIT EREIT SP Add |
0.21 |
0.36 |
\$1,283 |
42.8% |
0.28 |
0.76 |
10.3% |
10.8% |
10.9% |
| Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust FLT SP Add |
0.90 |
1.35 |
\$2,581 |
36.2% |
1.13 |
0.80 |
7.4% |
7.6% |
7.4% |
| Keppel DC REIT KDCREIT SP Add |
2.07 |
2.48 |
\$3,559 |
30.2% |
1.53 |
1.35 |
4.8% |
5.0% |
5.2% |
| Mapletree Industrial Trust MINT SP Add |
2.05 |
2.82 |
\$4,455 |
39.8% |
1.74 |
1.18 |
6.8% |
6.9% |
7.1% |
| Mapletree Logistics Trust MLT SP Add |
1.16 |
1.63 |
\$4,480 |
40.7% |
1.31 |
0.89 |
6.9% |
6.4% |
6.4% |
| Stoneweg European REIT SERT SP Add |
1.43 |
1.92 |
\$913 |
40.2% |
1.33 |
1.08 |
9.0% |
9.1% |
9.0% |
| Sabana Shariah SSREIT SP NR |
0.36 |
NA |
\$291 |
37.4% |
0.50 |
0.72 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Simple Average |
|
|
|
37.6% |
|
1.00 |
6.5% |
6.6% |
6.6% |
| Office |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Keppel REIT KREIT SP Add |
0.85 |
1.08 |
\$2,493 |
42.1% |
1.24 |
0.68 |
6.4% |
6.8% |
6.9% |
| OUE REIT OUEREIT SP Hold |
0.28 |
0.32 |
\$1,153 |
39.3% |
0.59 |
0.47 |
7.1% |
7.4% |
7.7% |
| Suntec REIT SUN SP Hold |
1.16 |
1.33 |
\$2,594 |
42.3% |
2.05 |
0.57 |
5.5% |
5.9% |
6.2% |
| Simple Average |
|
|
|
41.2% |
|
0.57 |
6.3% |
6.7% |
7.0% |
| Retail |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial CICT SP Add |
2.14 |
2.45 |
\$11,930 |
38.5% |
2.09 |
1.02 |
5.2% |
5.5% |
5.7% |
| Frasers Centrepoint Trust FCT SP Add |
2.28 |
2.68 |
\$3,343 |
39.3% |
2.23 |
1.02 |
5.3% |
5.4% |
5.5% |
| Lendlease Global Commercial REIT LREIT SP Add |
0.52 |
0.69 |
\$960 |
40.8% |
0.74 |
0.70 |
7.7% |
7.7% |
7.8% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust MPACT SP Add |
1.22 |
1.53 |
\$4,898 |
38.2% |
1.73 |
0.71 |
6.7% |
6.8% |
7.0% |
| Paragon REIT PGNREIT SP Hold |
0.98 |
0.98 |
\$2,110 |
35.3% |
0.92 |
1.07 |
5.2% |
5.4% |
5.6% |
| Starhill Global REIT SGREIT SP Add |
0.49 |
0.60 |
\$857 |
36.2% |
0.69 |
0.71 |
7.4% |
7.5% |
7.6% |
| Simple Average |
|
|
|
38.1% |
|
0.87 |
6.2% |
6.4% |
6.5% |
| Overseas-centric |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CapitaLand China Trust CLCT SP NR |
0.69 |
NA |
\$916 |
41.9% |
1.09 |
0.63 |
8.4% |
8.5% |
8.6% |
| Elite UK REIT ELITE SP Add |
0.29 |
0.35 |
\$227 |
45.5% |
0.39 |
0.74 |
10.1% |
10.1% |
10.2% |
| Manulife US REIT MUST SP Add |
0.07 |
0.13 |
\$115 |
60.8% |
0.23 |
0.28 |
0.0% |
42.4% |
49.2% |
| Sasseur REIT SASSR SP Add |
0.63 |
0.85 |
\$598 |
24.8% |
0.83 |
0.75 |
9.9% |
10.2% |
10.5% |
| Simple Average |
|
|
|
43.3% |
|
0.60 |
7.1% |
17.8% |
19.6% |
| Healthcare |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Parkway Life REIT PREIT SP Add |
4.18 |
4.91 |
\$2,078 |
36.1% |
2.42 |
1.73 |
3.7% |
4.0% |
4.2% |
ESG Analysis
MLT’s ESG performance, as evaluated by LSEG, is noteworthy. The overall ESG score is B, segmented into Environmental (B+), Social (B), and Governance (B+). MLT excels in ESG Controversies, achieving an A+ rating [[3]].
- Green Roadmap: MLT introduced a green roadmap in its FY3/24 annual report, outlining 2030 targets for green building certification and solar energy generation. The roadmap supports achieving carbon neutrality for Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, with a long-term goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 [[3]].
- Sustainability Targets: Key targets include green certification for over 80% of its portfolio and a 20% reduction in energy intensity in Singapore and Hong Kong SAR from the FY3/19 baseline by 2030. Additionally, MLT aims to expand solar energy generating capacity to 100 MWp by 2030 [[3]].
- Alignment with Sponsor: MLT’s sustainability approach aligns with Mapletree Investments, focusing on transitioning to a low-carbon economy, ensuring employee and stakeholder health and safety, promoting workforce diversity and inclusion, supporting operating communities, and upholding high ethical standards [[3]].
Areas for Improvement
MLT’s environmental innovation (D+), community (D-), and shareholder (C+) ratings are areas needing enhancement. Improving the environmental pillar could elevate overall ESG scores. The report has not applied any premium/discount for ESG in our fundamental valuations [[3]].
Comparative ESG Ranking
LSEG ranks MLT 20th among 104 Singaporean companies and 6th out of 26 real estate companies/REITs in Singapore. Notable ESG initiatives for FY3/25 include increasing green certified space to 45% of the portfolio by gross floor area (GFA) as of September 2024. Self-funded solar generating capacity increased to 47.6 MWp, with total capacity reaching 69.1 MWp by December 2024. Over 1,600 indigenous trees were added across the portfolio in FY3/24. Furthermore, portfolio energy intensity decreased by 2%, and water intensity decreased by 20% from the FY23 baseline [[3]].
As of December 2024, total green and sustainability-linked loans amounted to S\$1.2 billion, approximately 21.6% of total debt facilities. The report finds that MLT fares well in its E, S, G pillars with few controversies and could be valued at a premium by some investors [[3]].
Detailed Financials
Profit & Loss (S\$m) [[4]]
| (S\$m) |
Mar-24A |
Mar-25A |
Mar-26F |
Mar-27F |
Mar-28F |
| Rental Revenues |
733.9 |
727.0 |
738.8 |
742.4 |
747.4 |
| Other Revenues |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Gross Property Revenue |
733.9 |
727.0 |
738.8 |
742.4 |
747.4 |
| Total Property Expenses |
(98.9) |
(101.7) |
(104.2) |
(104.5) |
(105.0) |
| Net Property Income |
634.9 |
625.3 |
634.6 |
637.9 |
642.4 |
| General And Admin. Expenses |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Management Fees |
(91.2) |
(90.5) |
(91.1) |
(91.2) |
(91.4) |
| Trustee’s Fees |
(1.8) |
(1.8) |
(1.6) |
(1.6) |
(1.6) |
| Other Operating Expenses |
(28.0) |
(10.9) |
(10.0) |
(10.0) |
(10.0) |
| EBITDA |
513.9 |
522.1 |
531.9 |
535.0 |
539.4 |
| Depreciation And Amortisation |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| EBIT |
513.9 |
522.1 |
531.9 |
535.0 |
539.4 |
| Net Interest Income |
(143.0) |
(154.2) |
(159.3) |
(160.2) |
(162.3) |
| Associates’ Profit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Other Income/(Expenses) |
0.0 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Exceptional Items |
22.2 |
(94.6) |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
| Pre-tax Profit |
393.1 |
273.8 |
382.6 |
384.9 |
387.0 |
| Taxation |
(63.1) |
(64.9) |
(43.4) |
(43.8) |
(44.2) |
| Minority Interests |
(2.6) |
(1.1) |
(1.1) |
(1.1) |
(1.1) |
| Preferred Dividends |
(24.3) |
(24.2) |
(22.6) |
(24.3) |
(24.3) |
| Net Profit |
303.1 |
183.5 |
315.4 |
315.7 |
317.4 |
| Distributable Profit |
447.1 |
406.4 |
380.3 |
380.7 |
382.6 |
Cash Flow (S\$m) [[4]]
| (S\$m) |
Mar-24A |
Mar-25A |
Mar-26F |
Mar-27F |
Mar-28F |
| Pre-tax Profit |
393.1 |
273.8 |
382.6 |
384.9 |
387.0 |
| Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. |
143.0 |
153.7 |
159.3 |
160.2 |
162.3 |
| Change In Working Capital |
25.7 |
(8.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tax Paid |
(35.8) |
(33.9) |
(43.4) |
(43.8) |
(44.2) |
| Others |
47.4 |
151.2 |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
| Cashflow From Operations |
573.5 |
536.0 |
498.5 |
501.2 |
505.2 |
| Capex |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Net Investments And Sale Of FA |
(846.8) |
(246.5) |
15.8 |
(34.6) |
(86.5) |
| Other Investing Cashflow |
2.5 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
| Cash Flow From Investing |
(844.3) |
(243.7) |
18.4 |
(32.0) |
(83.9) |
| Debt Raised/(repaid) |
665.3 |
263.6 |
6.9 |
50.0 |
100.0 |
| Equity Raised/(Repaid) |
196.7 |
(0.4) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dividends Paid |
(433.9) |
(400.7) |
(403.0) |
(405.0) |
(406.9) |
| Cash Interest And Others |
(147.6) |
(149.3) |
(162.0) |
(162.8) |
(165.0) |
| Cash Flow From Financing |
280.6 |
(286.7) |
(558.0) |
(517.8) |
(471.9) |
| Total Cash Generated |
9.8 |
5.6 |
(41.2) |
(48.5) |
(50.6) |
| Free Cashflow To Firm |
(270.8) |
292.3 |
516.9 |
469.3 |
421.3 |
| Free Cashflow To Equity |
263.2 |
409.1 |
361.8 |
356.5 |
356.3 |
Balance Sheet (S\$m) [[5]]
| (S\$m) |
Mar-24A |
Mar-25A |
Mar-26F |
Mar-27F |
Mar-28F |
| Total Investments |
13,140 |
13,245 |
13,229 |
13,264 |
13,350 |
| Intangible Assets |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Other Long-term Assets |
193 |
219 |
219 |
219 |
219 |
| Total Non-current Assets |
13,333 |
13,464 |
13,448 |
13,483 |
13,569 |
| Total Cash And Equivalents |
305 |
299 |
258 |
209 |
159 |
| Inventories |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Trade Debtors |
41 |
39 |
39 |
39 |
39 |
| Other Current Assets |
133 |
91 |
91 |
91 |
91 |
| Total Current Assets |
479 |
429 |
388 |
339 |
288 |
| Trade Creditors |
314 |
324 |
324 |
324 |
324 |
| Short-term Debt |
275 |
374 |
374 |
374 |
374 |
| Other Current Liabilities |
32 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
| Total Current Liabilities |
621 |
740 |
740 |
740 |
740 |
| Long-term Borrowings |
5,035 |
5,208 |
5,215 |
5,265 |
5,365 |
| Other Long-term Liabilities |
672 |
698 |
698 |
698 |
698 |
| Total Non-current Liabilities |
5,707 |
5,906 |
5,913 |
5,963 |
6,063 |
| Shareholders’ Equity |
6,885 |
6,6
|
