Monday, December 9th, 2024

ThaiBev Stock Analysis: Signs of Improvement and Potential Upside in FY25








In-Depth Equity Research on Leading Beverage Companies

In-Depth Equity Research on Leading Beverage Companies

Broker: OCBC Investment Research

Date: 25 November 2024

Thai Beverage: A Leading Force in Southeast Asia

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (ThaiBev) stands as Thailand’s largest beverage company, with its presence extending to Vietnam, where it ranks among the leading beer producers. ThaiBev’s business is segmented into Spirits, Beer, Non-alcoholic Beverages (NAB), and Food, offering a diversified portfolio of over 300 products. The company has a stronghold in the market, thanks to its extensive distribution network covering 400,000 points of sale in Thailand, achieving a 90% penetration rate.

In FY24, ThaiBev’s revenue increased by 2.2% year-on-year (YoY) to THB340.3 billion, although Profit After Tax and Minority Interests (PATMI) slightly declined by 0.8% YoY to THB27.2 billion. A strategic share swap transaction with TCC Assets Limited resulted in a significant increase in ThaiBev’s stake in Fraser and Neave, Limited (F&N) from 28.31% to 69.64%. Despite challenges in the spirits segment, including a 5.8% decline in PATMI, the beer and NAB segments showed robust growth, attributed to increased sales volume and improved operational efficiencies.

Looking ahead to FY25, ThaiBev is optimistic about reduced raw material costs and continued operational efficiency. The company maintains a ‘BUY’ rating with a fair value estimate of SGD0.69, reflecting confidence in its market strategies and growth potential.

Asahi Group Holdings: Diversification and Growth

Asahi Group Holdings, a prominent name in the beverage industry, is expected to see its Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio decrease from 12.5 in FY25E to 11.3 in FY26E, indicating potential growth in earnings. The company maintains a robust portfolio with a focus on diversification and expanding its market presence. Asahi’s Price/Book and EV/EBITDA ratios also suggest a stable financial foundation, with anticipated improvements in market performance and profitability.

Asahi’s dividend yield is projected to increase from 2.9% in FY25E to 3.4% in FY26E, demonstrating the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders. The Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to rise, signaling effective management and strategic investments. Asahi Group Holdings is well-positioned to leverage its strengths in the competitive beverage market.

Anheuser-Busch InBev: A Global Brewing Powerhouse

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, a global leader in the beer industry, is set to experience a decline in its P/E ratio from 16.3 in FY25E to 14.8 in FY26E. The company’s strategic initiatives and global reach are key drivers of its financial performance. Anheuser-Busch InBev’s EV/EBITDA and dividend yield figures underscore its strong market position and ability to generate consistent returns for investors.

The anticipated increase in ROE from 8.1% to 8.7% reflects the company’s effective utilization of equity capital and its focus on enhancing shareholder value. Anheuser-Busch InBev remains a formidable player in the global brewing arena, poised for sustained growth and market expansion.

Heineken NV: Brewing Success with Strategic Investments

Heineken NV, known for its iconic beer brands, is projected to see its P/E ratio decrease from 15.1 in FY25E to 13.9 in FY26E. The company’s strategic investments and focus on operational efficiency are expected to drive profitability and enhance its competitive edge. Heineken’s dividend yield is anticipated to rise, reflecting its dedication to rewarding shareholders.

With a strong ROE, Heineken is well-equipped to capitalize on emerging market opportunities and navigate industry challenges. The company’s commitment to innovation and sustainability further strengthens its position as a leading global brewer.

Carlsberg A/S: Navigating Challenges with Resilience

Carlsberg A/S, a prominent player in the global beer market, is expected to witness a decrease in its P/E ratio from 14.1 in FY25E to 12.3 in FY26E. The company’s focus on operational excellence and strategic market expansion is key to its financial resilience. Carlsberg’s robust dividend yield and high ROE highlight its commitment to delivering value to shareholders.

As Carlsberg continues to navigate industry challenges, its strategic initiatives and strong brand portfolio position it for long-term growth. The company’s ability to adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer preferences is a testament to its enduring market presence.


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