SCB X Overview
Date: October 21, 2024
Broker: CGS International Securities
Financial Performance
- 3Q24 Net Profit: THB 10.9 billion
- Year-on-Year Growth: +13.2%
- Quarter-on-Quarter Growth: +9.3%
- Comparison to Consensus Forecast: 6.6% above Bloomberg consensus, 8.8% higher than internal estimates.
- 9M24 Net Profit: THB 32.2 billion
- Year-on-Year Change: -0.9%
- Contribution to FY24 Forecast: 76.3%
Operating Metrics
- Pre-Provision Operating Profit Growth: -0.7% YoY, flat QoQ in 3Q24.
- Loan Growth:
- YoY: -0.6%
- QoQ: -0.2%
- Compared to End-2023: +0.3%
- NPL Ratio: 3.9% (unchanged QoQ).
- NPL Coverage Ratio: 164%, up from 162% in 2Q24.
- Net Interest Margin (NIM): Flat at 4.08% in 3Q24.
Income Breakdown
- Non-Interest Income Growth: -18.2% YoY, -9.5% QoQ in 3Q24.
- Net Fee Income Growth: -4.9% YoY but +2.8% QoQ.
Dividend and Valuation
- Dividend Yield: Expected to be between 9.1% and 9.7% p.a. for FY24F-26F.
- Target Price: THB 111 (based on 0.76x P/BV).
- Current Price: THB 110.0
- Market Capitalization: US$ 11,176 million (THB 370,382 million).
Analyst Rating
- Recommendation: Hold
- Consensus Ratings:
Risks and Opportunities
Downside Risks:
- Potential spike in NPLs for housing and unsecured loans.
- Sluggish fee income growth.
Upside Risks:
- Stronger-than-expected loan growth in 2H24F, particularly in large corporate segments.
- Effective cost-saving initiatives that could lower the cost-to-income ratio.
ESG and Sustainability
- ESG Combined Score: A- (LSEG ESG Scores, 2023).
- Sustainability Goals: Targeting net zero emissions for operations by 2030 and for lending/investment by 2050.
- Financial Support for Climate Projects: Aiming to provide THB 100 billion by 2025 to support businesses mitigating climate change.
This comprehensive overview encapsulates the key details for SCB X as provided in the report.
